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Uncertainty Assessment of Species Distribution Prediction Using Multiple Global Climate Models on the Tibetan Plateau: A Case Study of Gentiana yunnanensis and Gentiana siphonantha

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Song, Yuxin1,3; Xu, Xiaoting1; Zhang, Shuoying1,2; Chi, Xiulian3
刊名LAND
出版日期2024-09-01
卷号13期号:9页码:15
关键词climate change general circulation models species distribution models uncertainties Gentiana
DOI10.3390/land13091376
产权排序3
英文摘要Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used to project how species respond to future climate changes as forecasted by global climate models (GCMs). While uncertainties in GCMs specific to the Tibetan Plateau have been acknowledged, their impacts on species distribution modeling needs to be explored. Here, we employed ten algorithms to evaluate the uncertainties of SDMs across four GCMs (ACCESS-CM2, CMCC-ESM2, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, and UKESM1-0-LL) under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) at two time stages. We selected two endemic species of the Tibetan Plateau, Gentiana yunnanensis and G. siphonantha, distributed in the Hengduan Mountain regions of the southeast plateau and northeast plateau regions, respectively, as case studies. Under the two SSPs and two time periods, there are significant differences in the distribution areas of G. yunnanensis predicted by different GCMs, with some showing increases and others showing decreases. In contrast, the distribution range trends for G. siphonantha predicted by different GCMs are consistent, initially increasing and then decreasing. The CMCC-ESM2 model predicted the largest increase in the distribution range of G. yunnanensis, while the UKESM1-0-LL model predicted the greatest decrease in the distribution range of G. siphonantha. Our findings highlight that the four selected GCMs still lead to some variations in the final outcome despite the existence of similar trends. We recommend employing the average values from the four selected GCMs to simulate species potential distribution under future climate change scenarios to mitigate uncertainties among GCMs.
WOS关键词PSEUDO-ABSENCES ; BIODIVERSITY ; PRECIPITATION ; SHIFTS
资助项目Scientific and Technological Innovation Project of China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[82173930] ; Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Province[2023NSFSC1280] ; [CI2021A03908]
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001326137500001
出版者MDPI
资助机构Scientific and Technological Innovation Project of China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Province
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/210290]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Xu, Xiaoting; Chi, Xiulian
作者单位1.Sichuan Univ, Coll Life Sci, Minist Educ, Key Lab Bioresource & Ecoenvironm, Chengdu 610065, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
3.China Acad Chinese Med Sci, Natl Resource Ctr Chinese Mat Med, State Key Lab Qual Ensurance & Sustainable Use Dao, Beijing 100700, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Song, Yuxin,Xu, Xiaoting,Zhang, Shuoying,et al. Uncertainty Assessment of Species Distribution Prediction Using Multiple Global Climate Models on the Tibetan Plateau: A Case Study of Gentiana yunnanensis and Gentiana siphonantha[J]. LAND,2024,13(9):15.
APA Song, Yuxin,Xu, Xiaoting,Zhang, Shuoying,&Chi, Xiulian.(2024).Uncertainty Assessment of Species Distribution Prediction Using Multiple Global Climate Models on the Tibetan Plateau: A Case Study of Gentiana yunnanensis and Gentiana siphonantha.LAND,13(9),15.
MLA Song, Yuxin,et al."Uncertainty Assessment of Species Distribution Prediction Using Multiple Global Climate Models on the Tibetan Plateau: A Case Study of Gentiana yunnanensis and Gentiana siphonantha".LAND 13.9(2024):15.

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来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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