The Fate of Deep Permafrost Carbon in Northern High Latitudes in the 21st Century: A Process-Based Modeling Analysis
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Liu, L.1,3,4; Zhuang, Q.3; Zhao, D.4; Wei, J.2; Zheng, D.4 |
| 刊名 | EARTHS FUTURE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2024-11-01 |
| 卷号 | 12期号:11页码:e2024EF004996 |
| 关键词 | permafrost degradation ecosystem C budget climate change process-based modeling deep soils |
| DOI | 10.1029/2024EF004996 |
| 产权排序 | 2 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Warming in permafrost regions stimulates carbon (C) release through decomposition, but increasing atmospheric CO2 and available soil nitrogen enhance plant productivity at the same time. To date, a large uncertainty in the regional C dynamics still remains. Here we use a process-based biogeochemical model by considering C exposure from thawed permafrost and observational data to quantify permafrost C emissions and ecosystem C budget in northern high latitudes in the 21st century. Permafrost degradation will make 119.3 Pg and 251.6 Pg C available for decomposition by 2100 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)126 and SSP585, respectively. However, only 4-8% of the newly thawed permafrost C is expected to be released into the atmosphere by 2100. Cumulatively, permafrost degradation will reduce ecosystem C stocks by 3.37 Pg and 15.37 Pg under the SSP126 and SSP585, respectively. Additionally, CO2 fertilization effects would stimulate plant productivity and increase ecosystem C stocks substantially. The combined effects of climate change, CO2 fertilization, and permafrost degradation on C fluxes are typically more profound than any single factor, emphasizing the intricate interplay between these elements in shaping permafrost C-climate feedbacks. Our study suggests that the majority of the thawed C will remain sequestered in previously frozen layers in this century, posing a significant challenge to climate change mitigation efforts once any process accelerates the decomposition of this huge amount of thawed C. |
| WOS关键词 | NET PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY ; SOIL CARBON ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS ; TIBETAN PLATEAU ; ATMOSPHERIC CO2 ; ELEVATED CO2 ; NITROGEN ; TEMPERATURE ; SENSITIVITY |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001369020300001 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/210466]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhao, D. |
| 作者单位 | 1.Zhengzhou Univ, Sch Geosci & Technol, Zhengzhou, Peoples R China 2.Henan Univ Econ & Law, Sch Urban & Rural Planning, Zhengzhou, Peoples R China 3.Purdue Univ, Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci, W Lafayette, IN USA 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, L.,Zhuang, Q.,Zhao, D.,et al. The Fate of Deep Permafrost Carbon in Northern High Latitudes in the 21st Century: A Process-Based Modeling Analysis[J]. EARTHS FUTURE,2024,12(11):e2024EF004996. |
| APA | Liu, L.,Zhuang, Q.,Zhao, D.,Wei, J.,&Zheng, D..(2024).The Fate of Deep Permafrost Carbon in Northern High Latitudes in the 21st Century: A Process-Based Modeling Analysis.EARTHS FUTURE,12(11),e2024EF004996. |
| MLA | Liu, L.,et al."The Fate of Deep Permafrost Carbon in Northern High Latitudes in the 21st Century: A Process-Based Modeling Analysis".EARTHS FUTURE 12.11(2024):e2024EF004996. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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