Land Use Modeling and Predicted Ecosystem Service Value Under Different Development Scenarios: A Case Study of the Upper-Middle Yellow River Basin, China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Ma, Mingwei2; He, Yuhuai2; Sun, Yanwei2; Cui, Huijuan1; Zang, Hongfei2 |
| 刊名 | LAND
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025 |
| 卷号 | 14期号:1页码:115 |
| 关键词 | land use change CA-Markov model ecosystem service value multi-scenario simulation Yellow River Basin |
| DOI | 10.3390/land14010115 |
| 产权排序 | 2 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Exploring the future ecosystem service value (ESV) of the upper-middle Yellow River Basin is of great significance to enhancing its ecological security and capacity. This is in response to the strategy for the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. In this study, the land use change from 2000 to 2020 was analyzed quantitatively. The land use pattern in 2035 was predicted using Cellular Automata and Markov models under business as usual (BAU), ecological protection (EPS), and high urbanization (HUS) scenarios. The future ESV was estimated and the impact of land use changes on the regional ESV was identified. The results indicate that the study area experienced a reduction (similar to 12,139 km(2)) in cultivation and an expansion (similar to 10,597 km(2)) of built-up land from 2000 to 2020. In 2035, under the BAU scenario, the area of construction land and water would expand by 24.52% and 11.51%, respectively, while the area of grassland and unused land would decrease by 18,520 km2 and 2770 km2, respectively. Under the EPS scenario, the area of forests, grasslands, and water would increase by 16.57%, 10.59%, and 4%, respectively. Under three different scenarios, the regional ESVs are estimated at from CNY 2475 to 2710 billion, while grasslands contribute the largest part accounting for from 57.98% to 59.21%. These findings could help to guide land development and protection through regional ecological construction. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001406730000001 |
| 出版者 | MDPI |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/211340]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Cui, Huijuan |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.North China Univ Water Resources & Elect Power, Coll Water Resources, Zhengzhou 450046, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ma, Mingwei,He, Yuhuai,Sun, Yanwei,et al. Land Use Modeling and Predicted Ecosystem Service Value Under Different Development Scenarios: A Case Study of the Upper-Middle Yellow River Basin, China[J]. LAND,2025,14(1):115. |
| APA | Ma, Mingwei,He, Yuhuai,Sun, Yanwei,Cui, Huijuan,&Zang, Hongfei.(2025).Land Use Modeling and Predicted Ecosystem Service Value Under Different Development Scenarios: A Case Study of the Upper-Middle Yellow River Basin, China.LAND,14(1),115. |
| MLA | Ma, Mingwei,et al."Land Use Modeling and Predicted Ecosystem Service Value Under Different Development Scenarios: A Case Study of the Upper-Middle Yellow River Basin, China".LAND 14.1(2025):115. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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