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Projecting future minimum mortality temperature in China

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Luo, Lifang3; He, Guanhao6; Meng, Ruilin7; Liu, Tao6; Yu, Min1; Xiao, Yize2; Huang, Biao8; Zhou, Chunliang5; Zhang, Haoming2; Hou, Zhulin8
刊名ECOTOXICOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY
出版日期2024-11-01
卷号286页码:7
关键词Temperature Minimum mortality temperature Adaptation Projection
ISSN号0147-6513
DOI10.1016/j.ecoenv.2024.117192
产权排序10
英文摘要Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) increases with global warming due to climate adaptation, which is crucial for the precise assessment of mortality burden attributed to climate change. Nevertheless, forecasting future MMT poses a challenge given the unavailability of future mortality data. Here, we attempted to develop a novel approach to project future MMT. First, we estimated the MMT of 334 locations in China using a distributed lag nonlinear model. Then, meta regression models were applied to investigate the associations between MMT and several temperature variables(Most Frequent Temperature(MFT), average daily mean temperature, average daily minimum temperature, average daily maximum temperature and percentiles of temperature from 1st to 100th). A generalized linear regression model was employed to investigate whether significant differences existed in the relationships between MMT and temperature from the 1st to the 100th percentile. Finally, an optional indicator of MMT for projecting future values was identified. Our results indicated that temperatures in the 85th to 89th percentiles were closely associated with MMT, with the 88th percentile temperature serving as the most effective indicator, as confirmed by meta-regression models. Using the 88th percentile of temperature as alternative indicator of MMT, compared with the period of 2006-2015, the projected MMT in most districts and counties in China tended to rise under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the 2030 s (2030-2039), 2060 s (2060-2069), and 2090 s (2090-2099). Our findings provide some insight to project future MMT for assessing mortality burden related to temperature change driven by global warming.
WOS关键词TEMPORAL VARIATION ; TIME-SERIES ; CITIES ; EXPOSURE ; MODEL ; HEAT
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[42275187] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42075173] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42071377] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2018YFA0606200] ; Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong, China[2019A1515011880] ; Guangzhou Science and Technology Project[201704020194] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20030302]
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Toxicology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001339969000001
出版者ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong, China ; Guangzhou Science and Technology Project ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/210741]  
专题资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室_外文论文
通讯作者Ren, Zhoupeng; Ma, Wenjun
作者单位1.Zhejiang Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Hangzhou 310051, Peoples R China
2.Yunnan Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Kunming 650022, Peoples R China
3.Zhuhai Ctr Maternal & Child Hlth Care, Zhuhai, Peoples R China
4.Queensland Univ Technol, Inst Hlth & Biomed Innovat, Sch Publ Hlth & Social Work, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
5.Hunan Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Dept Environm & Hlth, Changsha 410005, Peoples R China
6.Jinan Univ, Sch Med, Dept Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Guangzhou 510080, Peoples R China
7.Guangdong Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Guangzhou 511430, Peoples R China
8.Jilin Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Hlth Hazard Factors Control Dept, Changchun 130062, Peoples R China
9.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
10.Tsinghua Univ, Vanke Sch Publ Hlth, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Luo, Lifang,He, Guanhao,Meng, Ruilin,et al. Projecting future minimum mortality temperature in China[J]. ECOTOXICOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY,2024,286:7.
APA Luo, Lifang.,He, Guanhao.,Meng, Ruilin.,Liu, Tao.,Yu, Min.,...&Ma, Wenjun.(2024).Projecting future minimum mortality temperature in China.ECOTOXICOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY,286,7.
MLA Luo, Lifang,et al."Projecting future minimum mortality temperature in China".ECOTOXICOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY 286(2024):7.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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