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Future Scenarios of Forest Carbon Sink in a Typical Subtropical County

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Gong, Weipeng2; Zhang, Qin2; Fan, Zemeng1,4; Shi, Wenjiao1,4; Zhao, Na1,4; Du, Zhengping1; Yang, Yang1,4; Chen, Kainan1,4; Hu, Jingxuan1,4; An, Tongrui3
刊名FORESTS
出版日期2024-11-01
卷号15期号:11页码:18
关键词forest carbon sink climate scenarios forest management scenarios
DOI10.3390/f15111887
产权排序2
英文摘要In the context of achieving global carbon neutrality, forests play a pivotal role in sequestering atmospheric CO2, particularly in China, where forest management is central to national climate strategies. This study evaluates the forest carbon sink capacity in Zixi County, a subtropical region, under varying climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Using the Forest-DNDC (Denitrification-Decomposition) model, combined with high-precision climate data and a random forest model, we simulate forest carbon density and forest carbon sink under different management strategies. The results indicate that under the baseline scenario, forest carbon density in Zixi County increases by 31% over 42 years under the SSP2-4.5 climate scenario and by 28.6% under SSP5-8.5. In the enhancing economic scenario, carbon density increases by 8.5% under SSP2-4.5 and by 7.2% under SSP5-8.5. For the natural development scenario, a significant increase of 130% is observed under SSP2-4.5, while SSP5-8.5 shows an increase of 120%. Spatially, forest carbon sinks in Zixi County total 843,152 T C in 2020, 542,852 T C in 2030, and 877,802 T C in 2060 under the baseline SSP2-4.5 scenario; under SSP5-8.5, these values are 841,321 T C in 2020, 531,301 T C in 2030, and 1,016,402 T C in 2060. In the enhancing economic scenario, the total carbon sink is 34,650 T C in both 2020 and 2030, increasing to 427,351 T C in 2060 under SSP2-4.5, while under SSP5-8.5, it is 46,200 T C in 2020, 34,650 T C in 2030, and 415,801 T C in 2060. The natural development scenario shows the total carbon sink under SSP2-4.5 as 11,157,332 T C in 2020, 3,441,910 T C in 2030, and 1,409,104 T C in 2060, and under SSP5-8.5, it is 10,903,231 T C in 2020, 3,337,960 T C in 2030, and 1,131,903 T C in 2060. Spatial analysis reveals that elevation and forest type significantly affect carbon density, with high-altitude areas and forests dominated by Chinese fir and broadleaf species showing higher carbon accumulation. The findings highlight the importance of targeted forest management, prioritizing species with higher carbon sequestration potential and considering spatial heterogeneity. These strategies, applied locally, can contribute to broader national and global carbon neutrality efforts.
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; LAND-USE ; MODEL ; SEQUESTRATION ; EVOLUTION ; CYCLE ; SOIL
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Science Fund for Creative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China[72221002] ; Key Project of Innovation LREIS[KPI005] ; Fuzhou Project of Jiangxi Province for Open Competition Mechanism[2022JDA07] ; [42330707] ; [41930647]
WOS研究方向Forestry
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001366818900001
出版者MDPI
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Science Fund for Creative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Key Project of Innovation LREIS ; Fuzhou Project of Jiangxi Province for Open Competition Mechanism
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/211496]  
专题资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室_外文论文
通讯作者Yue, Tianxiang
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Jiangxi Agr Univ, Key Lab Agr Resources & Ecol Poyang Lake Watershed, Minist Agr & Rural Affairs China, Nanchang 330045, Peoples R China
3.Kings Coll London, Nat Math & Engn Sci, London WC2R 2LS, England
4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 101499, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Gong, Weipeng,Zhang, Qin,Fan, Zemeng,et al. Future Scenarios of Forest Carbon Sink in a Typical Subtropical County[J]. FORESTS,2024,15(11):18.
APA Gong, Weipeng.,Zhang, Qin.,Fan, Zemeng.,Shi, Wenjiao.,Zhao, Na.,...&Yue, Tianxiang.(2024).Future Scenarios of Forest Carbon Sink in a Typical Subtropical County.FORESTS,15(11),18.
MLA Gong, Weipeng,et al."Future Scenarios of Forest Carbon Sink in a Typical Subtropical County".FORESTS 15.11(2024):18.

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来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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