Emergent constraints on global soil moisture projections under climate change
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Yao, Lei2,3; Leng, Guoyong3; Yu, Linfei3; Li, Hongyi11; Tang, Qiuhong3; Python, Andre1,11; Hall, Jim W.10; Liao, Xiaoyong3; Li, Ji3; Qiu, Jiali3 |
| 刊名 | COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-01-20 |
| 卷号 | 6期号:1页码:39 |
| DOI | 10.1038/s43247-025-02024-7 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Surface soil moisture is projected to decrease under global warming. Such projections are mostly based on climate models, which show large uncertainty (i.e., inter-model spread) partly due to inadequate observational constraint. Here we identify strong physically-based emergent relationships between soil moisture change (2070-2099 minus 1980-2014) and recent air temperature and precipitation trends across an ensemble of climate models. We extend the commonly used univariate Emergent Constraints to a bivariate method and use observed temperature and precipitation trends to constrain global soil moisture changes. Our results show that the bivariate emergent constraints can reduce soil moisture change uncertainty by 7.87%, which is four times more effective than traditional temperature-based univariate constraints. The bivariate emergent constraints change the sign of soil moisture change from negative to positive for semi-arid, dry sub-humid and humid regions and global land as a whole, but exacerbates the drying trend in arid and hyper-arid regions. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | FUTURE CLIMATE ; DROUGHT ; PRECIPITATION ; SENSITIVITY ; SURFACE ; TEMPERATURE ; INCREASE |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001400888400002 |
| 出版者 | SPRINGERNATURE |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/211332]  |
| 专题 | 陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Leng, Guoyong |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Oxford, Nuffield Dept Med, Oxford, England; 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China; 4.Univ Leipzig, Remote Sensing Ctr Earth Syst Res, Leipzig, Germany 5.UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Remote Sensing, Leipzig, Germany; 6.TUD Dresden Univ Technol, Dept Hydro Sci, Dresden, Germany; 7.UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Cpd Environm Risks, Leipzig, Germany; 8.Xian Univ Technol, State Key Lab Ecohydraul Northwest Arid Reg China, Xian, Peoples R China; 9.Univ Leipzig, Leipzig Inst Meteorol, Leipzig, Germany; 10.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford, England; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yao, Lei,Leng, Guoyong,Yu, Linfei,et al. Emergent constraints on global soil moisture projections under climate change[J]. COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT,2025,6(1):39. |
| APA | Yao, Lei.,Leng, Guoyong.,Yu, Linfei.,Li, Hongyi.,Tang, Qiuhong.,...&Peng, Jian.(2025).Emergent constraints on global soil moisture projections under climate change.COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT,6(1),39. |
| MLA | Yao, Lei,et al."Emergent constraints on global soil moisture projections under climate change".COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT 6.1(2025):39. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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