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Intensified Drought Threatens Future Food Security in Major Food-Producing Countries

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Liu, Zihao1,3; Lv, Aifeng1,3; Li, Taohui2
刊名ATMOSPHERE
出版日期2025
卷号16期号:1页码:34
关键词food security drought crop yield reduction risk analysis
DOI10.3390/atmos16010034
产权排序1
文献子类Article
英文摘要Drought is one of the most severe natural disasters globally, with its frequency and intensity escalating due to climate change, posing significant threats to agricultural production. This is particularly critical in major food-producing regions, where drought profoundly impacts crop yields. Such impacts can trigger food crises in affected regions and disrupt global food trade patterns, thereby posing substantial risks to global food security. Based on historical data, this study examines the yield response characteristics of key crops-maize, rice, soybean, spring wheat, and winter wheat-under drought conditions during their growth cycles, highlighting variations in drought sensitivity among major food-producing countries. The findings reveal that maize and soybean yield in China, the United States, and Brazil are among the most sensitive and severely affected by drought. Furthermore, using precipitation simulation data from CMIP6 climate models, the study evaluates drought trends and associated crop yield risks under different future emission scenarios. Results indicate that under high-emission scenarios, crops face heightened drought risks during their growth cycles, with China and the United States particularly vulnerable to yield reductions. Additionally, employing copula functions, the study analyzes the probability of simultaneous drought occurrences across multiple countries, shedding light on the evolving trends of multicountry drought events in major food-producing regions. These findings provide a scientific basis for assessing global food security risks and offer policy recommendations to address uncertainties in food supply under climate change.
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WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; CROP-YIELD ; AGRICULTURE ; IMPACTS ; NITROGEN ; STRESS ; PROJECTIONS ; EFFICIENCY ; RESPONSES ; SYSTEMS
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001403923800001
出版者MDPI
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/211353]  
专题陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文
通讯作者Lv, Aifeng
作者单位1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China;
2.Yunnan Univ, Yunnan Key Lab Meteorol Disasters & Climate Resour, Kunming 650504, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China;
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Liu, Zihao,Lv, Aifeng,Li, Taohui. Intensified Drought Threatens Future Food Security in Major Food-Producing Countries[J]. ATMOSPHERE,2025,16(1):34.
APA Liu, Zihao,Lv, Aifeng,&Li, Taohui.(2025).Intensified Drought Threatens Future Food Security in Major Food-Producing Countries.ATMOSPHERE,16(1),34.
MLA Liu, Zihao,et al."Intensified Drought Threatens Future Food Security in Major Food-Producing Countries".ATMOSPHERE 16.1(2025):34.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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