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Increasing Socioeconomic Exposure to Compound Dry and Hot Events Under a Warming Climate in the Yangtze River Basin

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Zhang, Jiexiang2,3,4; Zhang, Xuejun2,3; Lyu, Juan2,3; Qu, Yanping2,3; Leng, Guoyong1
刊名SUSTAINABILITY
出版日期2024-12-01
卷号16期号:24页码:18
关键词climate change Yangtze River CDHEs population exposure GDP exposure
DOI10.3390/su162411264
产权排序4
英文摘要Investigating changes in compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) and evaluating the associated socioeconomic exposure under climate change are critical for developing effective climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. However, the socioeconomic exposure and the contributions of various driving factors to socioeconomic exposure under different warming levels remain poorly understood. Using the latest climate experiments from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this study assessed future changes in the frequency and socioeconomic exposure of CDHEs and explored the contributing drivers in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) under 1.5 degrees C, 2.0 degrees C, and 3.0 degrees C global warming scenarios. Results indicate that the occurrences of CDHEs are projected to increase by 2.9, 3.9, and 4.8 times in a 1.5 degrees C, 2.0 degrees C, and 3.0 degrees C warmer world, respectively, compared to the present period (1985-2014). Population exposure to CDHEs increases significantly, with the greatest magnitude occurring at the 2 degrees C warming scenario. GDP exposure is expected to intensify continuously as the global average temperature rises, with the area experiencing significant increases continuously expanding. Climate change is the dominant driver of total projected changes in population exposure to CDHEs, accounting for approximately 105.6% at 1.5 degrees C, 110.3% at 2.0 degrees C, and 141.0% at 3.0 degrees C. At 1.5 degrees C, 2.0 degrees C, and 3.0 degrees C warming levels, changes in GDP exposure are primarily driven by the synergistic interaction between climate and GDP, accounting for 50.7%, 62.0%, and 64.8%, respectively. These findings provide valuable insights for climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies.
WOS关键词TEMPERATURE EXTREMES ; WATER-RESOURCES ; DEGREES-C ; CHINA ; HEAT ; RISK ; VARIABILITY ; IMPACTS ; DROUGHT ; PRECIPITATION
资助项目National Key R&D Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42001039] ; [2023YFC3006604] ; [2021YFC3000202]
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001386846500001
出版者MDPI
资助机构National Key R&D Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/212024]  
专题陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文
通讯作者Zhang, Xuejun; Lyu, Juan
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Minist Water Resources, Res Ctr Flood & Drought Disaster Prevent & Reduct, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China
3.China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China
4.Hohai Univ, Coll Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing 210098, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Zhang, Jiexiang,Zhang, Xuejun,Lyu, Juan,et al. Increasing Socioeconomic Exposure to Compound Dry and Hot Events Under a Warming Climate in the Yangtze River Basin[J]. SUSTAINABILITY,2024,16(24):18.
APA Zhang, Jiexiang,Zhang, Xuejun,Lyu, Juan,Qu, Yanping,&Leng, Guoyong.(2024).Increasing Socioeconomic Exposure to Compound Dry and Hot Events Under a Warming Climate in the Yangtze River Basin.SUSTAINABILITY,16(24),18.
MLA Zhang, Jiexiang,et al."Increasing Socioeconomic Exposure to Compound Dry and Hot Events Under a Warming Climate in the Yangtze River Basin".SUSTAINABILITY 16.24(2024):18.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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