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Vapor pressure deficit and temperature variability drive future changes to carbon sink stability in China's terrestrial ecosystems

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Zhou, Ziyan4,5; Ren, Xiaoli4,5; Shi, Liang4,5; He, Honglin4,5,6; Zhang, Li4,5; Wang, Xiaoqin1; Zhang, Mengyu4,5; Zhang, Yonghong2; Fan, Yuchuan3
刊名FRONTIERS IN FORESTS AND GLOBAL CHANGE
出版日期2024-12-18
卷号7页码:1518578
关键词carbon sink dynamics carbon sink stability climate change terrestrial ecosystem China CMIP6
DOI10.3389/ffgc.2024.1518578
产权排序1
文献子类Article
英文摘要The stability of future carbon sinks is crucial for accurately predicting the global carbon cycle. However, the future dynamics and stability of carbon sinks remain largely unknown, especially in China, a significant global carbon sink region. Here, we examined the dynamics and stability of carbon sinks in China's terrestrial ecosystems from 2015 to 2,100 under two CMIP6 scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585), using XGBoost and SHAP models to quantify the impact of climatic drivers on carbon sink stability. China's future terrestrial ecosystems will act as a carbon sink (0.27-0.33 PgC/yr), with an initial increase that levels off over time. Although the carbon sink capacity increases, its stability does not consistently improve. Specifically, the stability of carbon sinks in future China's terrestrial ecosystems transitions from strengthening to weakening, primarily occurring in areas with higher carbon sink capacity. Further analysis revealed that atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and temperature (Tas) are the two primary factors influencing carbon sink stability, with significant differences in their impacts across different scenarios. Under the SSP245 scenario, variations in VPD (VPD.CV) regulate water availability through stomatal conductance, making it the key driver of changes in carbon sink stability. In contrast, under the SSP585 scenario, although VPD.CV still plays an important role, temperature variability (Tas.CV) becomes the dominant factor, with more frequent extreme climate events exacerbating carbon cycle instability. The study highlights the differences in driving factors of carbon sink stability under different scenarios and stresses the importance of considering these differences, along with the scale and stability of carbon sinks, when developing long-term carbon management policies to effectively support carbon neutrality goals.
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WOS关键词FLUCTUATION-DISSIPATION ; RESILIENCE ; INDICATORS ; SENSITIVITY ; VARIANCE
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Forestry
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001388420300001
出版者FRONTIERS MEDIA SA
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/211260]  
专题生态系统网络观测与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文
通讯作者Ren, Xiaoli
作者单位1.Fuzhou Univ, Minist Educ, Key Lab Spatial Data Min & Informat Sharing, Fuzhou, Peoples R China;
2.Lanzhou Univ, Coll Ecol, State Key Lab Grassland Agroecosyst, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China;
3.Mississippi State Univ, Geosyst Res Inst, Starkville, MS USA
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Ecosyst Network Observat & Modeling, Beijing, Peoples R China;
5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Natl Ecosyst Sci Data Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China;
6.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China;
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Zhou, Ziyan,Ren, Xiaoli,Shi, Liang,et al. Vapor pressure deficit and temperature variability drive future changes to carbon sink stability in China's terrestrial ecosystems[J]. FRONTIERS IN FORESTS AND GLOBAL CHANGE,2024,7:1518578.
APA Zhou, Ziyan.,Ren, Xiaoli.,Shi, Liang.,He, Honglin.,Zhang, Li.,...&Fan, Yuchuan.(2024).Vapor pressure deficit and temperature variability drive future changes to carbon sink stability in China's terrestrial ecosystems.FRONTIERS IN FORESTS AND GLOBAL CHANGE,7,1518578.
MLA Zhou, Ziyan,et al."Vapor pressure deficit and temperature variability drive future changes to carbon sink stability in China's terrestrial ecosystems".FRONTIERS IN FORESTS AND GLOBAL CHANGE 7(2024):1518578.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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