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MaxEnt and Marxan modeling to predict the potential habitat and priority planting areas of Coffea arabica in Yunnan, China under climate change scenario

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Li, Xia1,4; Wang, Zihao5; Wang, Shaoqiang2,5; Qian, Zhaohui1,3
刊名FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE
出版日期2024-11-28
卷号15页码:21
关键词Arabica coffee MAXENT model Marxan model main environmental variable potential habitat priority planting area
ISSN号1664-462X
DOI10.3389/fpls.2024.1471653
产权排序4
英文摘要Introduction Coffea arabica (Arabica coffee) is an important cash crop in Yunnan, China. Ongoing climate change has made coffee production more difficult to sustain, posing challenges for the region's coffee industry. Predictions of the distribution of potentially suitable habitats for Arabica coffee in Yunnan could provide a theoretical basis for the cultivation and rational management of this species.Methods In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution of suitable habitat for Arabica coffee in Yunnan under current and future (2021-2100) climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) using 56 distributional records and 17 environmental variables and to analyze the important environmental factors. Marxan model was used to plan the priority planting areas for this species at last.Results The predicted suitable and sub-suitable areas were about 4.21x104 km2 and 13.87x104 km2, respectively, accounting for 47.15% of the total area of the province. The suitable areas were mainly concentrated in western and southern Yunnan. The minimum temperature of the coldest month, altitude, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, slope, and aluminum saturation were the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of Arabica coffee in Yunnan Province. Changes in habitat suitability for Arabica coffee were most significant and contracted under the SSP3-7.0 climate scenario, while expansion was highest under the SSP5-8.5 climate scenario. Priority areas for Arabica coffee cultivation in Yunnan Province under the 30% and 50% targets were Pu'er, Xishuangbanna, Honghe, Dehong, and Kunming.Discussion Climate, soil, and topography combine to influence the potential geographic distribution of Arabica coffee. Future changes in suitable habitat areas under different climate scenarios should lead to the delineation of coffee-growing areas based on appropriate environmental conditions and active policy measures to address climate change.
WOS关键词ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELS ; SAMPLING BIAS ; WATER-USE ; CONSERVATION ; ADAPTABILITY ; ALTITUDE ; ALUMINUM ; QUALITY ; IMPACT ; RISKS
资助项目CUG Scholar Scientific Research Funds at China University of Geosciences[2019004] ; Foreign Environmental Cooperation Center, Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China[20241160087]
WOS研究方向Plant Sciences
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001375153900001
出版者FRONTIERS MEDIA SA
资助机构CUG Scholar Scientific Research Funds at China University of Geosciences ; Foreign Environmental Cooperation Center, Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/211796]  
专题生态系统网络观测与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文
通讯作者Wang, Zihao
作者单位1.Minist Ecol & Environm, Foreign Environm Cooperat Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Ecosyst Network Observat & Modeling, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.China Univ Geosci, Inst Adv Studies, Wuhan, Peoples R China
4.Tongji Univ, Coll Environm Sci & Engn, Shanghai, Peoples R China
5.China Univ Geosci, Hubei Key Lab Reg Ecol & Environm Change, Wuhan, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Li, Xia,Wang, Zihao,Wang, Shaoqiang,et al. MaxEnt and Marxan modeling to predict the potential habitat and priority planting areas of Coffea arabica in Yunnan, China under climate change scenario[J]. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE,2024,15:21.
APA Li, Xia,Wang, Zihao,Wang, Shaoqiang,&Qian, Zhaohui.(2024).MaxEnt and Marxan modeling to predict the potential habitat and priority planting areas of Coffea arabica in Yunnan, China under climate change scenario.FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE,15,21.
MLA Li, Xia,et al."MaxEnt and Marxan modeling to predict the potential habitat and priority planting areas of Coffea arabica in Yunnan, China under climate change scenario".FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE 15(2024):21.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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