Rainfall-Driven Extreme Snowmelt Will Increase in the Tianshan and Pamir Regions Under Future Climate Projection
文献类型:期刊论文
作者 | Yang, Tao8; Chen, Xi6,7; Hamdi, Rafiq5,7; Li, Lanhai3,4,6,7; Cui, Fengqi2; De Maeyer, Philippe1; Duan, Weili7 |
刊名 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
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出版日期 | 2025-01-16 |
卷号 | 130期号:1页码:21 |
关键词 | snow snowmelt water available for runoff WRF bias corrected CMIP6 Tianshan and Pamir |
ISSN号 | 2169-897X |
DOI | 10.1029/2024JD042323 |
英文摘要 | Snowmelt and related extreme events can have profound natural and societal impacts. However, the studies on projected changes in snow-related extremes across the Tianshan Mountains (TS) and Pamir regions have been underexplored. Utilizing regional climate model downscaling and bias-corrected CMIP6 data, this study examined the changes in snowmelt and water available for runoff (SMROS, rainfall plus snowmelt) during the cold seasons across these regions for historical (1994-2014) and future (2040-2060) periods under shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). The results demonstrated that accumulated snowmelt was projected to rise by 17.98% and 20.36%, whereas SMROS could increase by 26.97% and 28.95%, respectively, under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. Despite relatively minimal changes in extreme snowmelt, the magnitude of the historical daily maximum extreme SMROS (10-year return level) was 28.04 mm and was expected to increase by 15.32% and 15.31% under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively, especially in western TS exceeding 26%. Meanwhile, areas with a daily extreme SMROS exceeding 50 mm could rise by over 13.5%. A notable rise in daily extreme SMROS and its area occupation in high intensity highlighted an increased risk of rainfall-driven extreme snowmelt events. The absolute increase in snowfall and frequent snow-rain phase transitions during the cold season under climate warming (SSP245: 2.19 degrees C and SSP585: 2.22 degrees C) benefits the increase in high-intensity rain-on-snow events, leading to extreme SMROS augmentation. The findings emphasize the significant role of rainfall-trigger snowmelt events in exacerbating extreme snowmelt in a warming climate. |
WOS关键词 | TIEN-SHAN ; WATER EQUIVALENT ; PRECIPITATION ; SNOWFALL ; COVER ; MODEL ; VARIABILITY ; PATTERNS ; IMPACTS ; DATASET |
资助项目 | Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone[XJYS0907-2023-02] ; Project of Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone[42401165] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[2023TSYCLJ0050] ; Tianshan Talent Training Program[xbzg-zdsys-202208] ; West Light Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[ZR2024QD117] ; Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
语种 | 英语 |
WOS记录号 | WOS:001387794500001 |
出版者 | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION |
资助机构 | Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone ; Project of Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Tianshan Talent Training Program ; West Light Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation |
源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/58638] ![]() |
专题 | 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 |
通讯作者 | Li, Lanhai; Duan, Weili |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Ghent, Dept Geog, Ghent, Belgium 2.Shandong Jiaotong Univ, Sch Civil Engn, Jinan, Peoples R China 3.Xinjiang Key Lab Water Cycle & Utilizat Arid Zone, Urumqi, Peoples R China 4.Tianshan Snow Cover & Avalanche Observat & Res Stn, Xinyuan, Peoples R China 5.Royal Meteorol Inst, Meteorol & Climatol Res Dept, Brussels, Belgium 6.CAS Res Ctr Ecol & Environm Cent Asia, Urumqi, Peoples R China 7.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi, Peoples R China 8.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, State Key Lab Mt Hazards & Engn Resilience, Chengdu, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yang, Tao,Chen, Xi,Hamdi, Rafiq,et al. Rainfall-Driven Extreme Snowmelt Will Increase in the Tianshan and Pamir Regions Under Future Climate Projection[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2025,130(1):21. |
APA | Yang, Tao.,Chen, Xi.,Hamdi, Rafiq.,Li, Lanhai.,Cui, Fengqi.,...&Duan, Weili.(2025).Rainfall-Driven Extreme Snowmelt Will Increase in the Tianshan and Pamir Regions Under Future Climate Projection.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,130(1),21. |
MLA | Yang, Tao,et al."Rainfall-Driven Extreme Snowmelt Will Increase in the Tianshan and Pamir Regions Under Future Climate Projection".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 130.1(2025):21. |
入库方式: OAI收割
来源:成都山地灾害与环境研究所
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