中国科学院机构知识库网格
Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid
Rainfall-Driven Extreme Snowmelt Will Increase in the Tianshan and Pamir Regions Under Future Climate Projection

文献类型:期刊论文

作者Yang, Tao8; Chen, Xi6,7; Hamdi, Rafiq5,7; Li, Lanhai3,4,6,7; Cui, Fengqi2; De Maeyer, Philippe1; Duan, Weili7
刊名JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
出版日期2025-01-16
卷号130期号:1页码:21
关键词snow snowmelt water available for runoff WRF bias corrected CMIP6 Tianshan and Pamir
ISSN号2169-897X
DOI10.1029/2024JD042323
英文摘要

Snowmelt and related extreme events can have profound natural and societal impacts. However, the studies on projected changes in snow-related extremes across the Tianshan Mountains (TS) and Pamir regions have been underexplored. Utilizing regional climate model downscaling and bias-corrected CMIP6 data, this study examined the changes in snowmelt and water available for runoff (SMROS, rainfall plus snowmelt) during the cold seasons across these regions for historical (1994-2014) and future (2040-2060) periods under shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). The results demonstrated that accumulated snowmelt was projected to rise by 17.98% and 20.36%, whereas SMROS could increase by 26.97% and 28.95%, respectively, under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. Despite relatively minimal changes in extreme snowmelt, the magnitude of the historical daily maximum extreme SMROS (10-year return level) was 28.04 mm and was expected to increase by 15.32% and 15.31% under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively, especially in western TS exceeding 26%. Meanwhile, areas with a daily extreme SMROS exceeding 50 mm could rise by over 13.5%. A notable rise in daily extreme SMROS and its area occupation in high intensity highlighted an increased risk of rainfall-driven extreme snowmelt events. The absolute increase in snowfall and frequent snow-rain phase transitions during the cold season under climate warming (SSP245: 2.19 degrees C and SSP585: 2.22 degrees C) benefits the increase in high-intensity rain-on-snow events, leading to extreme SMROS augmentation. The findings emphasize the significant role of rainfall-trigger snowmelt events in exacerbating extreme snowmelt in a warming climate.

WOS关键词TIEN-SHAN ; WATER EQUIVALENT ; PRECIPITATION ; SNOWFALL ; COVER ; MODEL ; VARIABILITY ; PATTERNS ; IMPACTS ; DATASET
资助项目Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone[XJYS0907-2023-02] ; Project of Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone[42401165] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[2023TSYCLJ0050] ; Tianshan Talent Training Program[xbzg-zdsys-202208] ; West Light Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[ZR2024QD117] ; Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001387794500001
出版者AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
资助机构Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone ; Project of Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Tianshan Talent Training Program ; West Light Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation
源URL[http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/58638]  
专题中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
通讯作者Li, Lanhai; Duan, Weili
作者单位1.Univ Ghent, Dept Geog, Ghent, Belgium
2.Shandong Jiaotong Univ, Sch Civil Engn, Jinan, Peoples R China
3.Xinjiang Key Lab Water Cycle & Utilizat Arid Zone, Urumqi, Peoples R China
4.Tianshan Snow Cover & Avalanche Observat & Res Stn, Xinyuan, Peoples R China
5.Royal Meteorol Inst, Meteorol & Climatol Res Dept, Brussels, Belgium
6.CAS Res Ctr Ecol & Environm Cent Asia, Urumqi, Peoples R China
7.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi, Peoples R China
8.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, State Key Lab Mt Hazards & Engn Resilience, Chengdu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Yang, Tao,Chen, Xi,Hamdi, Rafiq,et al. Rainfall-Driven Extreme Snowmelt Will Increase in the Tianshan and Pamir Regions Under Future Climate Projection[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2025,130(1):21.
APA Yang, Tao.,Chen, Xi.,Hamdi, Rafiq.,Li, Lanhai.,Cui, Fengqi.,...&Duan, Weili.(2025).Rainfall-Driven Extreme Snowmelt Will Increase in the Tianshan and Pamir Regions Under Future Climate Projection.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,130(1),21.
MLA Yang, Tao,et al."Rainfall-Driven Extreme Snowmelt Will Increase in the Tianshan and Pamir Regions Under Future Climate Projection".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 130.1(2025):21.

入库方式: OAI收割

来源:成都山地灾害与环境研究所

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