A multi-model prediction system for ENSO
文献类型：CNKI期刊论文
| 作者 | Ting LIU; Yanqiu GAO; Xunshu SONG; Chuan GAO ; Lingjiang TAO; Youmin TANG; Wansuo DUAN; Rong-Hua ZHANG; Dake CHEN
|
| 发表日期 | 2023-05-16 |
| 出处 | Science China(Earth Sciences)
 |
| 关键词 | MME ENSO Prediction |
| 英文摘要 | The El Ni?o and Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is the primary source of predictability for seasonal climate prediction.To improve the ENSO prediction skill, we established a multi-model ensemble(MME) prediction system, which consists of 5 dynamical coupled models with various complexities, parameterizations, resolutions, initializations and ensemble strategies, to account for the uncertainties as sufficiently as possible. Our results demonstrated the superiority of the MME over individual models, with dramatically reduced the root mean square error and improved the anomaly correlation skill, which can compete with, or even exceed the skill of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble. In addition, the MME suffered less from the spring predictability barrier and offered more reliable probabilistic prediction. The real-time MME prediction adequately captured the latest successive La Ni?a events and the secondary cooling trend six months ahead. Our MME prediction has, since April 2022, forecasted the possible occurrence of a third-year La Ni?a event. Overall, our MME prediction system offers better skill for both deterministic and probabilistic ENSO prediction than all participating models. These improvements are probably due to the complementary contributions of multiple models to provide additive predictive information, as well as the large ensemble size that covers a more reasonable uncertainty distribution. |
| 文献子类 | CNKI期刊论文 |
| 资助机构 | supported by the Scientific Research Fund of the Second Institute of Oceanography, MNR (Grant No. QNYC2101) ; the Scientific Research Fund of the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) (Grant No. SML2021SP310) ; the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41690124 & 41690120),supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42030410) ; the National Key Research and Development Program (Grant No. 2017YFA0604202) ; the Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) (Grant No. 311021001) ; the Laoshan Laboratory Programe (Grant No. LSL202202402) ; the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST |
| 卷 | v.66期:06页:71-80 |
| 语种 | 英文; |
| 分类号 | P732 |
| ISSN号 | 1674-7313 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/187112]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院海洋研究所 |
| 作者单位 | 1.StateKeyLaboratoryofSatelliteOceanEnvironmentDynamics,SecondInstituteofOceanography,MinistryofNaturalResources 2.SouthernMarineScienceandEngineeringGuangdongLaboratory(Zhuhai) 3.KeyLaboratoryofOceanCirculationandWaves,InstituteofOceanology,andCenterforOceanMega-Science,ChineseAcademyofSciences 4.LaoshanLaboratory 5.DepartmentofAtmosphericandOceanicSciencesandInstituteofAtmosphericSciences,FudanUniversity 6.CollegeofOceanography,HohaiUniversity 7.EnvironmentalScienceandEngineering,UniversityofNorthernBritishColumbia 8.StateKeyLaboratoryofNumericalModelingforAtmosphericSciencesandGeophysicalFluidDynamics,InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences,UniversityofChineseAcademyofSciences 9.SchoolofMarineSciences,NanjingUniversityofInformationScienceandTechnology |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ting LIU,Yanqiu GAO,Xunshu SONG,et al. A multi-model prediction system for ENSO. 2023. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：海洋研究所
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