The unusual 2014–2016 El Ni?o events: Dynamics, prediction and enlightenments
文献类型：CNKI期刊论文
| 作者 | Ruihuang XIE ; Xianghui FANG
|
| 发表日期 | 2020-02-05 |
| 出处 | Science China(Earth Sciences)
 |
| 关键词 | El Ni?o Westerly Wind Bursts Easterly Wind Surges Operational prediction models |
| 英文摘要 | The 2014–2016 El Ni?o events consist of a stalled El Ni?o event in the winter of 2014/2015 and a following extreme El Ni?o event in the end of 2015. Neither event was successfully predicted in operational prediction models. Because of the unusual evolutions of these events that rarely happened in the historical observations, few experience was ready for understanding and predicting the two El Ni?o events when they occurred. Also due to their specialties, considerable attention were attracted with aims to reveal the hidden mechanisms. This article reviews the recent progresses and knowledge that were obtained in these studies. Emerging from these studies, it was argued that the key factor that was responsible for the stalled El Ni?o in 2014 was the unexpected summertime Easterly Wind Surges(EWSs) or the lack of summertime Westerly Wind Bursts(WWBs). Most operational prediction models failed to reproduce such stochastic winds and thus made unrealistic forecasts. The two El Ni?o events awakened the research community again to incorporate the state-of-the-art climate models to simulate the stochastic winds and investigate their roles in the development of El Ni?o. |
| 文献子类 | CNKI期刊论文 |
| 资助机构 | supported by the National Program on Global Change and Air-sea Interaction (Grant No. GASI-IPOVAI06) ; the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41976015 & 41805045) |
| 卷 | v.63期:05页:16-23 |
| 语种 | 英文; |
| 分类号 | P732 |
| ISSN号 | 1674-7313 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/188318]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院海洋研究所 |
| 作者单位 | 1.LaboratoryforOceanandClimateDynamics,PilotNationalLaboratoryforMarineScienceandTechnology(Qingdao) 2.CASKeyLaboratoryofOceanCirculationandWaves,InstituteofOceanology,andCenterforOceanMega-Science,ChineseAcademyofSciences 3.DepartmentofAtmosphericandOceanicSciences&InstituteofAtmosphericSciences,FudanUniversity 4.InnovationCenterofOceanandAtmosphereSystem,ZhuhaiFudanInnovationResearchInstitute |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ruihuang XIE,Xianghui FANG. The unusual 2014–2016 El Ni?o events: Dynamics, prediction and enlightenments. 2020. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：海洋研究所
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