ENSO Predictions in an Intermediate Coupled Model Influenced by Removing Initial Condition Errors in Sensitive Areas: A Target Observation Perspective
文献类型：CNKI期刊论文
| 作者 | Ling-Jiang TAO ; Chuan GAO; Rong-Hua ZHANG
|
| 发表日期 | 2018-05-28 |
| 出处 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
 |
| 关键词 | El Nio prediction initial condition errors target observations |
| 英文摘要 | Previous studies indicate that ENSO predictions are particularly sensitive to the initial conditions in some key areas(socalled "sensitive areas"). And yet, few studies have quantified improvements in prediction skill in the context of an optimal observing system. In this study, the impact on prediction skill is explored using an intermediate coupled model in which errors in initial conditions formed to make ENSO predictions are removed in certain areas. Based on ideal observing system simulation experiments, the importance of various observational networks on improvement of El Ni n?o prediction skill is examined. The results indicate that the initial states in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are important to improve El Ni n?o prediction skill effectively. When removing the initial condition errors in the central equatorial Pacific, ENSO prediction errors can be reduced by 25%. Furthermore, combinations of various subregions are considered to demonstrate the efficiency on ENSO prediction skill. Particularly, seasonally varying observational networks are suggested to improve the prediction skill more effectively. For example, in addition to observing in the central equatorial Pacific and its north throughout the year,increasing observations in the eastern equatorial Pacific during April to October is crucially important, which can improve the prediction accuracy by 62%. These results also demonstrate the effectiveness of the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach on detecting sensitive areas for target observations. |
| 文献子类 | CNKI期刊论文 |
| 资助机构 | supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA19060102) ; the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41475101, 41690122, 41690120 and 41421005) ; the National Programme on Global Change and Air–Sea Interaction Interaction (Grant Nos. GASI-IPOVAI-06 and GASI-IPOVAI-01-01) |
| 卷 | v.35期:07页:103-117 |
| 语种 | 英文; |
| 分类号 | P714.2 |
| ISSN号 | 0256-1530 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/188912]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院海洋研究所 |
| 作者单位 | 1.KeyLaboratoryofOceanCirculationandWaves,InstituteofOceanology,ChineseAcademyofSciences 2.UniversityofChineseAcademyofSciences 3.QingdaoNationalLaboratoryforMarineScienceandTechnology |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ling-Jiang TAO,Chuan GAO,Rong-Hua ZHANG. ENSO Predictions in an Intermediate Coupled Model Influenced by Removing Initial Condition Errors in Sensitive Areas: A Target Observation Perspective. 2018. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：海洋研究所
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