The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects
文献类型：CNKI期刊论文
| 作者 | MU Mu; DUAN WanSuo; TANG YouMin |
| 发表日期 | 2017-11-01 |
| 出处 | Science China(Earth Sciences)
 |
| 关键词 | Atmosphere-ocean Predictability Intrinsic predictability limit Ensemble forecast |
| 英文摘要 | This paper reviews the historic understanding of the predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions, and interprets it in a general framework. On this basis, the existing challenges and unsolved problems in the study of the intrinsic predictability limit(IPL) of weather and climate events of different spatio-temporal scales are summarized. Emphasis is also placed on the structure of the initial error and model parameter errors as well as the associated targeting observation issue. Finally, the predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motion in the ensemble-probabilistic methods widely used in current operational forecasts are discussed.The necessity of considering IPLs in the framework of stochastic dynamic systems is also addressed. |
| 文献子类 | CNKI期刊论文 |
| 资助机构 | supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41230420, 41376018 & 41606012) |
| 卷 | v.60期:11页:97-108 |
| 语种 | 英文; |
| 分类号 | P456;P73 |
| ISSN号 | 1674-7313 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/189139]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院海洋研究所 |
| 作者单位 | 1.InstituteofAtmosphericSciences,FudanUniversity 2.InstituteofOceanology,ChineseAcademyofSciences 3.InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences 4.CollegeofEarthSciences,UniversityofChineseAcademyofSciences 5.SecondInstituteofOceanographyStateOceanicAdministration |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | MU Mu,DUAN WanSuo,TANG YouMin. The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects. 2017. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：海洋研究所
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