The IOCAS intermediate coupled model(IOCAS ICM) and its real-time predictions of the 2015–2016 El Nio event
文献类型：CNKI期刊论文
| 作者 | Rong-Hua Zhang ; Chuan Gao
|
| 发表日期 | 2016-07-15 |
| 出处 | Science Bulletin
 |
| 关键词 | The 2015 El Nio event IOCAS ICM Real-time prediction Model performance and improvement Air-sea interactions |
| 英文摘要 | The tropical Pacific is currently experiencing an El Nio event. Various coupled models with different degrees of complexity have been used to make real-time El Nio predictions, but large uncertainties exist in the intensity forecast and are strongly model dependent. An intermediate coupled model(ICM) is used at the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences(IOCAS),named the IOCAS ICM, to predict the sea surface temperature(SST) evolution in the tropical Pacific during the2015–2016 El Nio event. One unique feature of the IOCAS ICM is the way in which the temperature of subsurface water entrained in the mixed layer(T_e) is parameterized. Observed SST anomalies are only field that is utilized to initialize the coupled prediction using the IOCAS ICM. Examples are given of the model's ability to predict the SST conditions in a real-time manner. As is commonly evident in El Nio Southern Oscillation predictions using coupled models,large discrepancies occur between the observed and predicted SST anomalies in spring 2015. Starting from early summer 2015, the model can realistically predict warming conditions. Thereafter, good predictions can be made through the summer and fall seasons of 2015. A transition to normal and cold conditions is predicted to occur in late spring 2016. Comparisons with other model predictions are made and factors influencing the prediction performance of the IOCAS ICM are also discussed. |
| 文献子类 | CNKI期刊论文 |
| 资助机构 | the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41490644,41475101 and41421005) ; the CAS Strategic Priority Project ; the Western Pacific Ocean System(XDA11010105,XDA11020306 and XDA11010301) ; the NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers(U1406401) |
| 卷 | v.61期:13页:75-84 |
| 语种 | 英文; |
| 分类号 | P732 |
| ISSN号 | 2095-9273 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/189598]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院海洋研究所 |
| 作者单位 | 1.LaboratoryforOceanandClimateDynamics,QingdaoNationalLaboratoryforMarineScienceandTechnology 2.KeyLaboratoryofOceanCirculationandWaves,InstituteofOceanology,ChineseAcademyofSciences 3.UniversityofChineseAcademyofSciences |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rong-Hua Zhang,Chuan Gao. The IOCAS intermediate coupled model(IOCAS ICM) and its real-time predictions of the 2015–2016 El Nio event. 2016. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：海洋研究所
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