Role of Parameter Errors in the Spring Predictability Barrier for ENSO Events in the Zebiak–Cane Model
文献类型：CNKI期刊论文
| 作者 | YU Liang; MU Mu; Yanshan YU |
| 发表日期 | 2014-05-10 |
| 出处 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
 |
| 关键词 | ENSO predictability,spring predictability barrier,initial errors,parameter errors,error growth |
| 英文摘要 | The impact of both initial and parameter errors on the spring predictability barrier(SPB) is investigated using the Zebiak–Cane model(ZC model). Previous studies have shown that initial errors contribute more to the SPB than parameter errors in the ZC model. Although parameter errors themselves are less important, there is a possibility that nonlinear interactions can occur between the two types of errors, leading to larger prediction errors compared with those induced by initial errors alone. In this case, the impact of parameter errors cannot be overlooked. In the present paper, the optimal combination of these two types of errors [i.e., conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) errors] is calculated to investigate whether this optimal error combination may cause a more notable SPB phenomenon than that caused by initial errors alone. Using the CNOP approach, the CNOP errors and CNOP-I errors(optimal errors when only initial errors are considered) are calculated and then three aspects of error growth are compared:(1) the tendency of the seasonal error growth;(2) the prediction error of the sea surface temperature anomaly; and(3) the pattern of error growth. All three aspects show that the CNOP errors do not cause a more significant SPB than the CNOP-I errors. Therefore, this result suggests that we could improve the prediction of the El Nino during spring by simply focusing on reducing the initial errors in this model. |
| 文献子类 | CNKI期刊论文 |
| 资助机构 | jointly sponsored by the National Nature Scientific Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41230420 and 41006015) ; the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No.2012CB417404) ; the Basic Research Program of Science and Technology Projects of Qingdao (Grant No11-1-4-95-jch) |
| 卷 | v.31期:03页:145-154 |
| 语种 | 英文; |
| 分类号 | P732.4 |
| ISSN号 | 0256-1530 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/190477]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院海洋研究所 |
| 作者单位 | 1.KeyLaboratoryofOceanCirculationandWavesInstituteofOceanology,ChineseAcademyofSciences 2.UniversityofChineseAcademyofSciences 3.SchoolofMathematicalSciences,MonashUniversityClaytonVictoria |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | YU Liang,MU Mu,Yanshan YU. Role of Parameter Errors in the Spring Predictability Barrier for ENSO Events in the Zebiak–Cane Model. 2014. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：海洋研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。