Can Adaptive Observations Improve Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts?
文献类型：CNKI期刊论文
| 作者 | QIN Xiaohao; MU Mu |
| 发表日期 | 2014-03-10 |
| 出处 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
 |
| 关键词 | adaptive observation,tropical cyclone,intensity forecast,conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation |
| 英文摘要 | In order to investigate whether adaptive observations can improve tropical cyclone(TC)intensity forecasts,observing system simulation experiments(OSSEs)were conducted for 20 TC cases originating in the western North Pacific during the2010 season according to the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)sensitivity,using the fifth version of the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model(MM5)and its 3DVAR assimilation system.A new intensity index was defined as the sum of the number of grid points within an allocated square centered at the corresponding forecast TC central position,that satisfy constraints associated with the Sea Level Pressure(SLP),near-surface horizontal wind speed,and accumulated convective precipitation.The higher the index value is,the more intense the TC is.The impacts of the CNOP sensitivity on the intensity forecast were then estimated.The OSSE results showed that for15 of the 20 cases there were improvements,with reductions of forecast errors in the range of 0.12%–8.59%,which were much less than in track forecasts.The indication,therefore,is that the CNOP sensitivity has a generally positive effect on TC intensity forecasts,but only to a certain degree.We conclude that factors such as the use of a coupled model,or better initialization of the TC vortex,are more important for an accurate TC intensity forecast. |
| 文献子类 | CNKI期刊论文 |
| 资助机构 | sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41105040) |
| 卷 | v.31期:02页:14-24 |
| 语种 | 英文; |
| 分类号 | P444 |
| ISSN号 | 0256-1530 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/190543]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院海洋研究所 |
| 作者单位 | 1.KeyLaboratoryofOceanCirculationandWaves,InstituteofOceanology,ChineseAcademyofSciences 2.StateKeyLaboratoryofNumericalModelingforAtmosphericSciencesandGeophysicalFluidDynamics,InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | QIN Xiaohao,MU Mu. Can Adaptive Observations Improve Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts?. 2014. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：海洋研究所
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