The Roles of Spatial Locations and Patterns of Initial Errors in the Uncertainties of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
文献类型：CNKI期刊论文
| 作者 | Chen BY(陈博宇); Mu M(穆穆) |
| 发表日期 | 2012-01-15 |
| 出处 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
 |
| 关键词 | sensitive area,conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation,CNOP,uncertainty of initial conditions,nonlinear development |
| 英文摘要 | In this study,a series of sensitivity experiments were performed for two tropical cyclones (TCs),TC Longwang (2005) and TC Sinlaku (2008),to explore the roles of locations and patterns of initial errors in uncertainties of TC forecasts.Specifically,three types of initial errors were generated and three types of sensitive areas were determined using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP),first singular vector (FSV),and composite singular vector (CSV) methods.Additionally,random initial errors in randomly selected areas were considered.Based on these four types of initial errors and areas,we designed and performed 16 experiments to investigate the impacts of locations and patterns of initial errors on the nonlinear developments of the errors,and to determine which type of initial errors and areas has the greatest impact on TC forecasts.Overall,results from the experiments indicate the following:(1) The impact of random errors introduced into the sensitive areas was greater than that of errors themselves fixed in the randomly selected areas.From the perspective of statistical analysis,and by comparison,the impact of random errors introduced into the CNOP target area was greatest.(2) The initial errors with CNOP,CSV,or FSV patterns were likely to grow faster than random errors.(3) The initial errors with CNOP patterns in the CNOP target areas had the greatest impacts on the final verification forecasts. |
| 文献子类 | CNKI期刊论文 |
| 资助机构 | sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos. 40830955) ; the China Meteorological Administration (Grant No. GYHY200906009) |
| 卷 | v.29期:01页:65-80 |
| 语种 | 英文; |
| 分类号 | P457.8 |
| ISSN号 | 0256-1530 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/191373]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院海洋研究所 |
| 作者单位 | 1.NationalKeyLaboratoryofNumericalModelingforAtmosphericSciencesandGeophysicalFluidDynamics,InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences 2.GraduateUniversityofChineseAcademyofSciences 3.KeyLaboratoryofOceanCirculationandWave,InstituteofOceanology,ChineseAcademyofSciences |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chen BY,Mu M. The Roles of Spatial Locations and Patterns of Initial Errors in the Uncertainties of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts. 2012. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：海洋研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。