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Decreased ENSO post-2100 in response to formation of a permanent El Ni?o-like state under greenhouse warming

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Geng, Tao2; Cai, Wenju1,2,3,4,5,6; Jia, Fan5,7,8; Wu, Lixin1,2,3
刊名NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
出版日期2024-07-10
卷号15期号:1页码:10
DOI10.1038/s41467-024-50156-9
通讯作者Cai, Wenju(wenju.cai@csiro.au) ; Jia, Fan(jiafan@qdio.ac.cn)
英文摘要Under transient greenhouse warming, El Ni & ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is projected to increase pre-2100, accompanied by an easier establishment of atmospheric convection in the equatorial eastern Pacific, where sea surface temperature (SST) warms faster than surrounding regions. After 2100, how ENSO variability may change remains unknown. Here we find that under a high emission scenario, ENSO variability post-2100 reverses from the initial increase to an amplitude far smaller than that of the 20th century. The fast eastern warming persists and shrinks the equatorial Pacific non-convective area, such that establishing convection in the non-convective area, as during an El Ni & ntilde;o, requires smaller convective anomaly, inducing weaker wind anomalies leading to reduced ENSO SST variability. The nonlinear ENSO response is thus a symptom of the persistent El Ni & ntilde;o-like warming pattern. Therefore, the oscillatory ENSO impact could be replaced by that from the permanent El Ni & ntilde;o-like mean condition with cumulative influences on affected regions. The authors find a reversal in El Ni & ntilde;o sea surface temperature variability under persistent greenhouse warming, from an increase pre-2100 to a reduction post-2100 amid the development of a permanent El Ni & ntilde;o-like warming pattern.
资助项目National Key Research & Development Program of China[2023YFF0805200] ; Science and Technology Innovation Project of Laoshan Laboratory[LSKJ202203300] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2020YFA0608801] ; Taishan Scholars Program ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) project[42206209] ; China National Postdoctral Program for Innovative Talents[BX20220279] ; NSFC[42376006] ; NSFC[LSKJ202202402] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of Chinese Academy of Sciences[2021205] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of Chinese Academy of Sciences[tsqn202312265]
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001315717400021
出版者NATURE PORTFOLIO
源URL[http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/198987]  
专题海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者Cai, Wenju; Jia, Fan
作者单位1.Ocean Univ China, Inst Adv Ocean Studies, Qingdao, Peoples R China
2.Laoshan Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China
3.Xiamen Univ, Coll Ocean & Earth Sci, Xiamen, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Earth Environm, Xian, Peoples R China
5.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Ocean Observat & Forecasting, Qingdao, Peoples R China
6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Earth Environm, State Key Lab Loess & Quaternary Geol, Xian, Peoples R China
7.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Ocean Observat & Forecasting, Qingdao, Peoples R China
8.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Geng, Tao,Cai, Wenju,Jia, Fan,et al. Decreased ENSO post-2100 in response to formation of a permanent El Ni?o-like state under greenhouse warming[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2024,15(1):10.
APA Geng, Tao,Cai, Wenju,Jia, Fan,&Wu, Lixin.(2024).Decreased ENSO post-2100 in response to formation of a permanent El Ni?o-like state under greenhouse warming.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,15(1),10.
MLA Geng, Tao,et al."Decreased ENSO post-2100 in response to formation of a permanent El Ni?o-like state under greenhouse warming".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 15.1(2024):10.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：海洋研究所

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