A new subsurface precursor across the spring predictability barrier for the ENSO prediction
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhang, Zhixiang1,2,3,4 ; Wang, Jianing1,2,3,4; Wang, Fan1,2,3,4
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| 刊名 | DEEP-SEA RESEARCH PART I-OCEANOGRAPHIC RESEARCH PAPERS
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| 出版日期 | 2024 |
| 卷号 | 203页码:11 |
| 关键词 | El Nino-Southern oscillation Subsurface precursors Regression analysis Nin o 3.4 index |
| ISSN号 | 0967-0637 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.dsr.2023.104213 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Jianing(fwang@qdio.ac.cn) ; Wang, Fan(fwang@qdio.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Despite decades of research on forecasting the El Ni & ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the past decades, skillfully predicting the ENSO across the spring predictability barrier remains challenging. In this study, we utilize the ensemble of four model products to identify a new subsurface precursor consisting of the anomalous equatorial zonal velocity over 180 degrees-150 degrees W and 140-180 m and potential temperature in the western Pacific (over 120 degrees-140 degrees E and 120-160 m), which could predict the ENSO before spring by applying regression analysis. Such a precursor can predict the Ni & ntilde;o 3.4 index in December at a lead time of 13 months with a regressed correlation of 0.79. The anomalous subsurface zonal velocity in the central Pacific favors the eastward migration of the warm water during the development of El Ni & ntilde;o. Further validations with diverse training and application periods indicate that for initialization in November, this new precursor shows high skills in predicting the Ni & ntilde;o 3.4 index at a lead time of 6-18 months over 1993-2016, outperforming counterparts for the other traditional precursors. Our study can help highlight the importance of subsurface processes in the ENSO development, improving our general ability to predict the ENSO, and enabling better preparedness for the implications of its occurrence. |
| WOS关键词 | WARM WATER VOLUME ; EL-NINO ; PACIFIC-OCEAN ; EQUATORIAL PACIFIC |
| 资助项目 | Laoshan Laboratory[LSKJ202202700] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2022YFF0801400] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[42106009] ; Special Research Assistant Program from Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) ; NSFC[42221005] ; NSFC[42090040] ; NSFC[91958204] ; NSFC[42222602] ; Science and Technology Innovation Project of Laoshan Laboratory[LSKJ202203100] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of from the the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)[XDA22000000] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS ; TS Scholar Program |
| WOS研究方向 | Oceanography |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001139658400001 |
| 出版者 | PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD |
| 源URL | [http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/199666]  |
| 专题 | 海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Jianing; Wang, Fan |
| 作者单位 | 1.Funct Lab Ocean Dynam & Climate, Pilot Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol Qingdao, Qingdao, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Ocean Mega Sci, Qingdao, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Inst Oceanol, Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Zhixiang,Wang, Jianing,Wang, Fan. A new subsurface precursor across the spring predictability barrier for the ENSO prediction[J]. DEEP-SEA RESEARCH PART I-OCEANOGRAPHIC RESEARCH PAPERS,2024,203:11. |
| APA | Zhang, Zhixiang,Wang, Jianing,&Wang, Fan.(2024).A new subsurface precursor across the spring predictability barrier for the ENSO prediction.DEEP-SEA RESEARCH PART I-OCEANOGRAPHIC RESEARCH PAPERS,203,11. |
| MLA | Zhang, Zhixiang,et al."A new subsurface precursor across the spring predictability barrier for the ENSO prediction".DEEP-SEA RESEARCH PART I-OCEANOGRAPHIC RESEARCH PAPERS 203(2024):11. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：海洋研究所
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