中国科学院机构知识库网格
Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid
Short-term evolution and risks of debris cloud stemming from collisions in geostationary orbit

文献类型:期刊论文

作者Shu P(舒鹏)1; Zhao, Meng3; Li, Zhen-Yu2; Sun, Wei2; Li YQ(李语强)1; Luo, Ya-Zhong3
刊名ACTA ASTRONAUTICA
出版日期2025-03
卷号228页码:486-493
关键词Space debris Object breakup Density evolution Collision probability Geostationary orbit
ISSN号0094-5765
DOI10.1016/j.actaastro.2024.12.016
产权排序第1完成单位
文献子类Article
英文摘要

The increasing population of objects in geostationary orbit has raised concerns about the potential risks posed by debris clouds resulting from fragmentation. The short-term evolution and associated hazards of debris generated by collisions in the geostationary region is investigated in this study. The initial distribution of two debris clouds is modeled using a single probability density function. The combined distribution of the evolved clouds is determined by solving boundary value problems. The risks associated with these debris clouds are evaluated by calculating the instantaneous impact rate and cumulative collision probability. The probability of collisions with millimeter-sized fragments may increase to 1% within 36 h, while the probability of collisions with fragments 5 cm or larger is approximately 10 -5 . These findings underscore the vulnerability of the geostationary region to space traffic accidents.

学科主题天文学 ; 航空、航天科学技术
URL标识查看原文
出版地THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, ENGLAND
WOS关键词ANALYTICAL-MODEL ; SPACE ; TOOL
资助项目National Natural Science Founda-tion of China[12303082] ; National Natural Science Founda-tion of China[12432017] ; National Natural Science Founda-tion of China[12402048] ; China Postdoctoral Sci-ence Foundation (CPSF)[2024M753491] ; Post-doctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF[GZC20232975]
WOS研究方向Engineering
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001393315600001
出版者PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
资助机构National Natural Science Founda-tion of China[12303082, 12432017, 12402048] ; China Postdoctoral Sci-ence Foundation (CPSF)[2024M753491] ; Post-doctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF[GZC20232975]
源URL[http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/27942]  
专题云南天文台_应用天文研究组
作者单位1.Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 650216, Kunming, China;
2.Beijing Institute of Tracking and Telecommunications Technology, 100094, Beijing, China
3.National University of Defense Technology, 410073, Changsha, China;
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Shu P,Zhao, Meng,Li, Zhen-Yu,et al. Short-term evolution and risks of debris cloud stemming from collisions in geostationary orbit[J]. ACTA ASTRONAUTICA,2025,228:486-493.
APA Shu P,Zhao, Meng,Li, Zhen-Yu,Sun, Wei,Li YQ,&Luo, Ya-Zhong.(2025).Short-term evolution and risks of debris cloud stemming from collisions in geostationary orbit.ACTA ASTRONAUTICA,228,486-493.
MLA Shu P,et al."Short-term evolution and risks of debris cloud stemming from collisions in geostationary orbit".ACTA ASTRONAUTICA 228(2025):486-493.

入库方式: OAI收割

来源:云南天文台

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