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Predicting Arrival Times of the CCMC CME/Shock Events Based on the SPM3 Model

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Liang, Yidan1,7; Zhao, Xinhua1,2,7; Xiang NB(向南彬)3; Feng, Shiwei4; Li, Fuyu5; Deng, Linhua6; Wan, Miao6; Li, Ran1,7
刊名ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL
出版日期2024-12-01
卷号976期号:2
ISSN号0004-637X
DOI10.3847/1538-4357/ad84f0
产权排序第4完成单位
文献子类Article
英文摘要Coronal mass ejection (CME) is a powerful solar phenomenon that can lead to severe space weather events. Forecasting whether and when the corresponding interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) will reach the Earth is very important in space weather study and forecast. At present, many different kinds of models use the near-Sun CME observations as model inputs to predict its propagation with similar prediction accuracies for large sample events. Among a series of physics-based models, the best-performing version of the shock propagation model (SPM) for large sample events, i.e., SPM3, had achieved a good forecast effect for the 23rd Solar Cycle events (1997.02-2006.12). To further evaluate SPM3, we collected CME events from 2013 January to 2023 July from the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) CME scoreboard as a new data set. SPM3 achieved a total prediction success rate of 57% for these new events with a mean absolute error of 8.93 hr and a rms error of 10.86 hr for the shock's arrival time. Interestingly, SPM3 provided better predictions for the CME/shock events during high solar activity years than low solar activity years. We also analyzed the influence of input parameters on CME propagation and found that the larger the angular width of the CME event, the higher the probability of the corresponding IP shock's reaching the Earth. Source latitude had little effect on the arrival probability of the corresponding shock, while source longitude did. The CMEs originating from around W15 degrees had the largest probability of hitting the Earth.
学科主题天文学 ; 太阳与太阳系
URL标识查看原文
出版地TEMPLE CIRCUS, TEMPLE WAY, BRISTOL BS1 6BE, ENGLAND
WOS关键词CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS ; II RADIO-EMISSION ; INTERPLANETARY SHOCK ; EARTH ; MISSION ; WAVES ; CMES ; 1-AU ; TOOL
资助项目National Key R & D Program of China[2022YFF0503900]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42030204]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[12373059]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42474224]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[12203054]; Beijing Natural Science Foundation[1242035]; The Yunnan Revitalization Talent Support Program Innovation Team Project[202405AS350012]; Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects[202301AV070007]; Sichuan Science and Technology Program[2023NSFSC1349]
WOS研究方向Astronomy & Astrophysics
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001363709400001
出版者IOP Publishing Ltd
资助机构National Key R & D Program of China[2022YFF0503900] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42030204, 12373059, 42474224, 12203054] ; Beijing Natural Science Foundation[1242035] ; The Yunnan Revitalization Talent Support Program Innovation Team Project[202405AS350012] ; Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects[202301AV070007] ; Sichuan Science and Technology Program[2023NSFSC1349]
版本出版稿
源URL[http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/27829]  
专题云南天文台_抚仙湖太阳观测站
作者单位1.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, People's Republic of China;
2.Radio Science and Technology Center (π Center), Chengdu 610041, People's Republic of China;
3.Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650216, People's Republic of China;
4.School of Space Science and Technology, Shandong University, Weihai 264209, People's Republic of China;
5.National Laboratory on Adaptive Optics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610209, People's Republic of China;
6.School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Yunnan Minzu University, Kunming 650504, People's Republic of China
7.State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, People's Republic of China; xhzhao@spaceweather.ac.cn;
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Liang, Yidan,Zhao, Xinhua,Xiang NB,et al. Predicting Arrival Times of the CCMC CME/Shock Events Based on the SPM3 Model[J]. ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL,2024,976(2).
APA Liang, Yidan.,Zhao, Xinhua.,向南彬.,Feng, Shiwei.,Li, Fuyu.,...&Li, Ran.(2024).Predicting Arrival Times of the CCMC CME/Shock Events Based on the SPM3 Model.ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL,976(2).
MLA Liang, Yidan,et al."Predicting Arrival Times of the CCMC CME/Shock Events Based on the SPM3 Model".ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL 976.2(2024).

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来源：云南天文台

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