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Hemispheric prediction of solar cycles 25 and 26 from multivariate sunspot time-series data via Informer models

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Cao, Jie2; Xu, Tingting2; Deng, Linhua2; Zhou, Xueliang2; Zhao, Xinhua3,4; Xiang NB(向南彬)5; Li, Fuyu6; Wan, Miao2; Zhou, Weihong1,2
刊名Astronomical Techniques and Instruments/天文技术与仪器(英文)
出版日期2025-01
卷号2期号:01页码:16-26
ISSN号1672-7975
DOI10.61977/ati2024047
产权排序第4完成单位
英文摘要Solar activity plays an important role in influencing space weather, making it important to understand numerous aspects of spatial and temporal variations in the Sun's radiative output. High-performance deep learning models and long-term observational records of sunspot relative numbers are essential for solar cycle forecasting. Using the multivariate time series of monthly sunspot relative numbers provided by the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan and two Informer-based models, we forecast the amplitude and timing of solar cycles 25 and 26. The main results are as follows:(1) The maximum amplitude of solar cycle 25 is higher than the previous solar cycle 24 and the following solar cycle 26, suggesting that the long-term oscillatory variation of sunspot magnetic fields is related to the roughly centennial Gleissberg cyclicity.(2) Solar cycles 25 and 26 exhibit a pronounced Gnevyshev gap, which might be caused by two non-coincident peaks resulting from solar magnetic flux transported by meridional circulation and mid-latitude diffusion in the convection zone.(3) Hemispheric prediction of sunspot activity reveals a significant northsouth asynchrony, with activity level of the Sun being more intense in the southern hemisphere. These results are consistent with expectations derived from precursor methods and dynamo theories, and further provide evidence for internal changes in solar magnetic field during the decay of the Modern Maximum. 
学科主题天文学 ; 太阳与太阳系
分类号P182
URL标识查看原文
资助项目National Nature Science Foundation of China [12463009]; the Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects [202301AV070007]; the Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects [202401AU07 0026]; the "Yunnan Revitalization Talent Support Program" Innovation Team Project [202405AS350012]; the Scientific Research Foundation Project of Yunnan Education Department [2023J0624]; the Scientific Research Foundation Project of Yunnan Education Department [2024Y469]; the GHfund A [202407016295]
语种英语
资助机构National Nature Science Foundation of China [12463009] ; the Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects [202301AV070007, 202401AU07 0026] ; the "Yunnan Revitalization Talent Support Program" Innovation Team Project [202405AS350012] ; the Scientific Research Foundation Project of Yunnan Education Department [2023J0624, 2024Y469] ; the GHfund A [202407016295]
版本出版稿
源URL[http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/28179]  
专题云南天文台_抚仙湖太阳观测站
云南天文台_中国科学院天体结构与演化重点实验室
作者单位1.Key Laboratory for the Structure and Evolution of Celestial Objects, Chinese Academy of Sciences
2.School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Yunnan Minzu University;
3.State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences;
4.Radio Science and Technology Center (π Center);
5.Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences;
6.National Laboratory on Adaptive Optics, Chinese Academy of Sciences;
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Cao, Jie,Xu, Tingting,Deng, Linhua,et al. Hemispheric prediction of solar cycles 25 and 26 from multivariate sunspot time-series data via Informer models[J]. Astronomical Techniques and Instruments/天文技术与仪器(英文),2025,2(01):16-26.
APA Cao, Jie.,Xu, Tingting.,Deng, Linhua.,Zhou, Xueliang.,Zhao, Xinhua.,...&Zhou, Weihong.(2025).Hemispheric prediction of solar cycles 25 and 26 from multivariate sunspot time-series data via Informer models.Astronomical Techniques and Instruments/天文技术与仪器(英文),2(01),16-26.
MLA Cao, Jie,et al."Hemispheric prediction of solar cycles 25 and 26 from multivariate sunspot time-series data via Informer models".Astronomical Techniques and Instruments/天文技术与仪器(英文) 2.01(2025):16-26.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：云南天文台

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