The Occurrence of Powerful Flares Stronger than X10 Class in Solar Cycles
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Tan, Baolin3,4; Zhang, Yin4; Huang, Jing3,4; Ji KF(季凯帆)1,2
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| 刊名 | ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL LETTERS
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| 出版日期 | 2025-01-20 |
| 卷号 | 979期号:1 |
| ISSN号 | 2041-8205 |
| DOI | 10.3847/2041-8213/ada611 |
| 产权排序 | 第3完成单位 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Solar flares stronger than X10 (S-flares, >X10) are the highest-class flares that significantly impact on the Sun's evolution and space weather. Based on observations of Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellites at soft X-ray wavelength and the daily sunspot numbers (DSNs) since 1975, we obtained some interesting and heuristic conclusions: (1) both S-flares and the more powerful extremely strong flares (ES-flares, >X14.3) mostly occur in the late phases of solar cycles (SCs) and low-latitude regions on the solar disk; (2) similar to X-class flares, the occurrence of S-flares in each SC is somewhat random, but the occurrence of ES-flares seems to be dominated by the mean DSN (V-m) and its rms deviation during the valley phase (V-d) before the cycle: the ES-flare number is strongly correlated with V-d, and the occurrence time of the first ES-flare is anticorrelated with V-d and V-m. These facts indicate that the higher the V-m and V-d, the stronger the SC, the more the ES-flares, and the earlier they occurred. We propose that the Sun may have a low-latitude active zone (LAZ), and most ES-flares are generated from the interaction between the LAZ and the newly emerging active regions. The correlations and the linear regression functions may provide an useful method to predict the occurrence of ES-flares in an upcoming SC, which derives that SC 25 will have about 2 +/- 1 ES-flares after the spring of 2027. |
| 学科主题 | 天文学 ; 太阳与太阳系 |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| 出版地 | TEMPLE CIRCUS, TEMPLE WAY, BRISTOL BS1 6BE, ENGLAND |
| WOS关键词 | SUNSPOT NUMBER ; MAGNETIC-FIELD ; SUPERFLARES ; PREDICTION ; REGIONS ; STARS ; SUN |
| 资助项目 | Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDB0560000]; National Key R&D Program of China[2021YFA1600503]; National Key R&D Program of China[2022YFF0503001]; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[183311KYSB20200003] |
| WOS研究方向 | Astronomy & Astrophysics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001398923800001 |
| 出版者 | IOP Publishing Ltd |
| 资助机构 | Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDB0560000] ; National Key R&D Program of China[2021YFA1600503, 2022YFF0503001] ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[183311KYSB20200003] |
| 版本 | 出版稿 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/28001]  |
| 专题 | 天文技术实验室 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Yunnan Key Laboratory of Solar Physics and Space Science, Kunming 650216, People's Republic of China 2.Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 110, Kunming 650011, People's Republic of China; 3.School of Astronomy and Space Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, People's Republic of China; 4.CAS Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Datun Road 20A, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100012, People's Republic of China; bltan@nao.cas.cn; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tan, Baolin,Zhang, Yin,Huang, Jing,et al. The Occurrence of Powerful Flares Stronger than X10 Class in Solar Cycles[J]. ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL LETTERS,2025,979(1). |
| APA | Tan, Baolin,Zhang, Yin,Huang, Jing,&季凯帆.(2025).The Occurrence of Powerful Flares Stronger than X10 Class in Solar Cycles.ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL LETTERS,979(1). |
| MLA | Tan, Baolin,et al."The Occurrence of Powerful Flares Stronger than X10 Class in Solar Cycles".ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL LETTERS 979.1(2025). |
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来源：云南天文台
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