Short- and long-term prediction and determinant analysis of tourism flow networks: A novel steady-state Markov chain method
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Liu, Jun3; Li, Xiaohan3; Yang, Yang2; Tan, Yuwei3; Geng, Tianhang3; Wang, Shenghong1 |
| 刊名 | TOURISM MANAGEMENT
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-08-01 |
| 卷号 | 109页码:105139 |
| 关键词 | Tourism flow networks Complex network Steady-state Markov chains Long-term prediction Inter-node interactions |
| ISSN号 | 0261-5177 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.tourman.2025.105139 |
| 产权排序 | 3 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Predicting tourism flow networks offers important insights for destination development but remains a methodological challenge. This study develops a novel steady-state Markov chain method, leveraging trajectory big data to facilitate short- and long-term predictions of interactions and distributions between nodes in tourism flow networks, using Tibet as a case study. The results demonstrate that the tourism flow network effectively elucidates intricate interrelationships. In the short term, the one-step transition probability matrix identifies tourists' potential next destinations, reflecting dynamic network changes. Over the long term, the Markov chain steadystate vector uncovers the stable distribution of tourists, emphasizing shifts in node significance. Additionally, the determinants influencing tourism destinations and different nodes have continuously evolved, whether assessed from a global influence or spatial heterogeneity perspective. Beyond its theoretical contributions, this paper offers practical implications for destination planning and intelligent decision-making management information systems. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | BEHAVIOR ; EXPLORATION ; PATTERNS |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Social Sciences - Other Topics ; Business & Economics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001411945300001 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCI LTD |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/212371]  |
| 专题 | 资源利用与环境修复重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Shenghong |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Temple Univ, Sch Sport Tourism & Hospitality Management, Philadelphia, PA USA; 3.Sichuan Univ, Tourism Sch, Chengdu 610207, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Jun,Li, Xiaohan,Yang, Yang,et al. Short- and long-term prediction and determinant analysis of tourism flow networks: A novel steady-state Markov chain method[J]. TOURISM MANAGEMENT,2025,109:105139. |
| APA | Liu, Jun,Li, Xiaohan,Yang, Yang,Tan, Yuwei,Geng, Tianhang,&Wang, Shenghong.(2025).Short- and long-term prediction and determinant analysis of tourism flow networks: A novel steady-state Markov chain method.TOURISM MANAGEMENT,109,105139. |
| MLA | Liu, Jun,et al."Short- and long-term prediction and determinant analysis of tourism flow networks: A novel steady-state Markov chain method".TOURISM MANAGEMENT 109(2025):105139. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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