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Temporal shifts in dengue epidemic in Guangdong Province before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: a Bayesian model study from 2012 to 2022

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Xu, Jiaqing8,9; Tan, Xiaohua6,7; Quan, Yi4,5; Gong, Dexin8; Deng, Hui6,7; Zhao, Jianguo8; Huang, Xing3,8; Zhang, Yingtao6,7; Ren, Zhoupeng2; Rong, Zuhua8
刊名PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES
出版日期2025-02-01
卷号19期号:2页码:e0012832
ISSN号1935-2735
DOI10.1371/journal.pntd.0012832
产权排序8
文献子类Article
英文摘要Background During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the implementation of public health intervention measures have reshaped the transmission patterns of other infectious diseases. We aimed to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of dengue in Guangdong Province, China, and to investigate the temporal shifts in dengue epidemic in Guangdong Province during the COVID-19 pandemic.Methods Based on the data of dengue reported cases, meteorological factors, and mosquito vector density in Guangdong Province from 2012 to 2022, wavelet analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between the dengue incidence in Southeast Asian (SEA) countries and the local dengue incidence in Guangdong Province. We constructed the dengue importation risk index to assess the monthly risk of dengue importation. Based on the counterfactual framework, we constructed the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model to capture the epidemic trends of dengue.Results Wavelet analysis showed that the local dengue incidence in Guangdong Province was in phase correlation with the dengue incidence of the prior month in relative SEA countries. The dengue importation risk index showed an increasing trend from 2012 to 2019, then decreased to a low level during the COVID-19 pandemic. From 2020 to 2022, the average annual number of reported imported cases and local cases of dengue in Guangdong Province were 26 and 2, respectively, with a decrease of 95.62% and 99.94% compared to the average during 2017-2019 (594 imported cases and 3,118 local cases). According to BSTS model estimates, 6557 local dengue cases may have been reduced in Guangdong Province from 2020 to 2022, with a relative reduction of 99.91% (95%CI: 98.85-99.99%).Conclusion The incidence of dengue in Guangdong notably declined from 2020 to 2022, which may be related to the co-benefits of COVID-19 intervention measures and the intensified interventions against dengue during that period. Furthermore, our findings further supported that dengue is not currently endemic in Guangdong.
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WOS研究方向Infectious Diseases ; Parasitology ; Tropical Medicine
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001411736600001
出版者PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/212357]  
专题资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室_外文论文
通讯作者Xiao, Jianpeng; Zhang, Meng
作者单位1.Jinan Univ, Sch Med, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst L, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China;
3.Southern Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China;
4.Pingshan Dist Peoples Hosp Shenzhen, Shenzhen, Guangdong, Peoples R China;
5.Southern Med Univ, Pingshan Hosp, Shenzhen, Guangdong, Peoples R China;
6.Guangdong Workstat Emerging Infect Dis Control & P, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China;
7.Guangdong Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China;
8.Guangdong Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Guangdong Prov Inst Publ Hlth, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China;
9.Guangdong Pharmaceut Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China;
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Xu, Jiaqing,Tan, Xiaohua,Quan, Yi,et al. Temporal shifts in dengue epidemic in Guangdong Province before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: a Bayesian model study from 2012 to 2022[J]. PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES,2025,19(2):e0012832.
APA Xu, Jiaqing.,Tan, Xiaohua.,Quan, Yi.,Gong, Dexin.,Deng, Hui.,...&Zhang, Meng.(2025).Temporal shifts in dengue epidemic in Guangdong Province before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: a Bayesian model study from 2012 to 2022.PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES,19(2),e0012832.
MLA Xu, Jiaqing,et al."Temporal shifts in dengue epidemic in Guangdong Province before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: a Bayesian model study from 2012 to 2022".PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES 19.2(2025):e0012832.

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来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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