Quantitative assessment of the GLOF risk along China-Nepal transboundary basins by integrating remote sensing, machine learning, and hydrodynamic model
文献类型:期刊论文
作者 | Gouli, Manish Raj3,4,5; Hu, Kaiheng4,5![]() |
刊名 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
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出版日期 | 2025-02-15 |
卷号 | 118页码:20 |
关键词 | GLOF risk Data-driven Quantitative Transboundary China-Nepal |
ISSN号 | 2212-4209 |
DOI | 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105231 |
英文摘要 | Moraine-dammed glacial lakes in the Himalayas are rapidly expanding due to glacier retreat, significantly increasing the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) to downstream settlements and infrastructure. In this study, we present a comprehensive assessment of GLOF risk in the Poiqu-Bhotekoshi and Gyirong-Trishuli transboundary basins, which span between China and Nepal. We employed Machine Learning (ML) models, initially trained in the Himalayas, to evaluate GLOF susceptibility in these basins. Also, we conducted hydrodynamic modeling of two representative glacial lakes for multi-dam break scenarios (high, medium, and low). These outcomes were intersected with publicly available physical infrastructure data to assess exposure and risk. Our findings identify 28 glacial lakes (>= 0.01 km2) as highly susceptible to GLOFs. In extreme scenarios, modeled lakes could release peak discharges ranging from 7532 to 38,220 m3/s and inundate up to 60 m depth, surpassing seasonal high-flow floods by up to ten times. Our analysis indicates that over 3000 buildings, about 50 bridges, nine hydropower sites, and around 50 km of the road could be at risk from anticipated GLOFs. Specifically, six sub-districts in Nepal and two counties in China have been identified as high risk. This study is expected to help authorities and policymakers in both countries in developing joint-ventured holistic disaster risk reduction strategies, thereby mitigating the GLOF risk in these vulnerable transboundary basins. |
WOS关键词 | MORAINE-DAMMED LAKES ; DANGEROUS GLACIAL LAKES ; OUTBURST FLOOD RISK ; POIQU RIVER-BASIN ; CATASTROPHIC DRAINAGE ; BREACH ; HAZARD ; INVENTORY ; DATABASE ; REGION |
资助项目 | Key Research and Development Program of Xizang Autonomous Region[XZ202301ZY0039G] ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP)[2019QZKK0902] ; Science and Technology Research Program of the Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences[IMHE-ZDRW-01] |
WOS研究方向 | Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources |
语种 | 英语 |
WOS记录号 | WOS:001416790600001 |
出版者 | ELSEVIER |
资助机构 | Key Research and Development Program of Xizang Autonomous Region ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) ; Science and Technology Research Program of the Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences |
源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/58759] ![]() |
专题 | 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 |
通讯作者 | Hu, Kaiheng |
作者单位 | 1.Jackson State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Jackson, MS USA 2.Tribhuvan Univ, Cent Dept Environm Sci, Kathmandu, Nepal 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Mt Hazards & Engn Resilience, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gouli, Manish Raj,Hu, Kaiheng,Khadka, Nitesh,et al. Quantitative assessment of the GLOF risk along China-Nepal transboundary basins by integrating remote sensing, machine learning, and hydrodynamic model[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION,2025,118:20. |
APA | Gouli, Manish Raj.,Hu, Kaiheng.,Khadka, Nitesh.,Liu, Shuang.,Yifan, Shu.,...&Talchabhadel, Rocky.(2025).Quantitative assessment of the GLOF risk along China-Nepal transboundary basins by integrating remote sensing, machine learning, and hydrodynamic model.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION,118,20. |
MLA | Gouli, Manish Raj,et al."Quantitative assessment of the GLOF risk along China-Nepal transboundary basins by integrating remote sensing, machine learning, and hydrodynamic model".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION 118(2025):20. |
入库方式: OAI收割
来源:成都山地灾害与环境研究所
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