Predicting CO2 and CH4 fluxes and their seasonal variations in a subarctic wetland under two shared socioeconomic pathway climate scenarios
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhao, Bingqian3,4; Zhang, Wenxin3; Wang, Peiyan2,4; D'Imperio, Ludovica1; Liu, Yijing4; Elberling, Bo4 |
| 刊名 | AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-03-01 |
| 卷号 | 362页码:16 |
| 关键词 | Net ecosystem exchange Methane Subarctic wetland Greenland Ecosystem modelling Future projection |
| ISSN号 | 0168-1923 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110359 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Wenxin(wenxin.zhang@nateko.lu.se) |
| 英文摘要 | The Arctic is undergoing a shift toward a warmer and wetter climate. Recent experiments indicate that the carbon balance of subarctic wet tundra is sensitive to both summer warming and deeper snow. However, few studies have combined experimental data with process-oriented models to predict how the terrestrial carbon cycle will respond to future climate change. Here, we use CoupModel, a process-oriented model, to investigate CO2 and CH4 dynamics in a subarctic wet tundra ecosystem under two contrasting climate change scenarios over the 21st century. Our findings show that the model successfully reproduced the treatment effects of warming on CO2 and CH4 fluxes comparing to measurements from control, open top chambers and snow addition plots. For 2014-2020, the studied ecosystem functioned as a minor source of CH4 and a neutral balance of CO2, resulting in the overall greenhouse gas emissions of 10.5 +/- 79.1 g CO2-eq m-2 yr-1. The calibrated model was used to predict CO2 and CH4 fluxes and their seasonal variations under future climate scenarios. By 2100, a warmer climate could enhance the mean annual sink strength of CO2 to 10.7 g C-CO2 m-2 yr-1 under SSP126 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1 and the radiative forcing level of 2.6 W m-2) and 26.2 g C-CO2 m-2 yr-1 under SSP585 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5 and the radiative forcing level of 8.5 W/m2). However, increasing trends in the CH4 budget were marginally small. The negligible response of CH4 emission can be mainly explained by insignificantly wetter climate and limited soil C stock. For the radiative balance of the ecosystem, CO2-equivalent flux of methane offset 78% of CO2 sink in SSP126, and 31% in SSP585. Overall, the subarctic wet tundra transitions from being a source to a sink for greenhouse gases, excluding N2O. |
| WOS关键词 | WINTER ECOSYSTEM RESPIRATION ; PROCESS-BASED MODEL ; METHANE EMISSIONS ; DEEPER SNOW ; PERMAFROST CARBON ; SOIL RESPIRATION ; ATMOSPHERIC CO2 ; TUNDRA ; PRECIPITATION ; MANIPULATION |
| 资助项目 | China Scholarship Council[202206160021] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[32201360] ; Swedish Research Council VR[2020-05338] |
| WOS研究方向 | Agriculture ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001390932100001 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 资助机构 | China Scholarship Council ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Swedish Research Council VR |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/212486]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Wenxin |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Copenhagen, Dept Geosci & Nat Resource Management, Rolighedsvej 23, DK-1958 Frederiksberg, Denmark 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Ecosyst Network Observat & Modelling, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Lund Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Sci, Solvegatan 12, S-22362 LUND, Sweden 4.Univ Copenhagen, Ctr Permafrost CENPERM, Dept Geosci & Nat Resource Management, Oster Voldgade 10, DK-1350 Copenhagen, Denmark |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhao, Bingqian,Zhang, Wenxin,Wang, Peiyan,et al. Predicting CO2 and CH4 fluxes and their seasonal variations in a subarctic wetland under two shared socioeconomic pathway climate scenarios[J]. AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY,2025,362:16. |
| APA | Zhao, Bingqian,Zhang, Wenxin,Wang, Peiyan,D'Imperio, Ludovica,Liu, Yijing,&Elberling, Bo.(2025).Predicting CO2 and CH4 fluxes and their seasonal variations in a subarctic wetland under two shared socioeconomic pathway climate scenarios.AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY,362,16. |
| MLA | Zhao, Bingqian,et al."Predicting CO2 and CH4 fluxes and their seasonal variations in a subarctic wetland under two shared socioeconomic pathway climate scenarios".AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY 362(2025):16. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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