Can system dynamics explain long-term hydrological behaviors? The role of endogenous linking structure
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhou, Xinyao9; Sheng, Zhuping8; Manevski, Kiril5,6,7; Zhao, Rongtian3,4; Zhang, Qingzhou2; Yang, Yanmin9; Han, Shumin9; Liu, Jinghong1,9; Yang, Yonghui1,6,9 |
| 刊名 | HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-01-14 |
| 卷号 | 29期号:1页码:159-177 |
| ISSN号 | 1027-5606 |
| DOI | 10.5194/hess-29-159-2025 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhou, Xinyao(zhouxy@sjziam.ac.cn) ; Yang, Yonghui(yonghui.yang@sjziam.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Hydrological models with conceptual tipping bucket and process-based evapotranspiration formulations are the most common tools in hydrology. However, these models consistently fail to replicate long-term and slow dynamics of a hydrological system, indicating the need for model augmentation and a shift in formulation approach. This study employed an entirely different approach - system dynamics - towards more realistic replication of the observed slow hydrological behaviors at inter-annual and inter-decadal scales. Using the headwaters of Baiyang Lake in China as a case study, the endogenous linking structure of the hydrological system was gradually unraveled from 1982 to 2015 through wavelet analysis, Granger's causality test, and a system dynamics model. The wavelet analysis and Granger's causality test identified a negatively correlated and bidirectional causal relationship between actual evapotranspiration and catchment water storage change across distinct climatic periodicities, and the system dynamics approach suggested a combined structure of a vegetation reinforcing feedback and a soil water-vegetation balancing feedback in the hydrological system. The system dynamics' structure successfully captured the slow hydrological behaviors under both natural and human-intervention scenarios, demonstrating a self-sustained oscillation arising within the system's boundary. Our results showed that the interaction between the vegetation structure and the soil-bound water dominates the hydrological process at an inter-annual scale, while the interaction between the climatic oscillation and the soil-water-holding capacity dominates the hydrological process at an inter-decadal scale. Conventional hydrological models, which typically employ physiological-based evapotranspiration formulations and assume invariable soil characteristics, ignore vegetation structure change at the inter-annual scale and soil-water-holding capacity change at the inter-decadal scale, leading to failure in predicting the observed long-term hydrological behaviors. The system dynamics model is in its early stage with applications primarily confined to water-stressed regions and long-term scales. However, the novel insights proposed in our study, including the different hierarchies corresponding to distinct mechanisms and timescales and the endogenous linking structure among stocks being a more important driver of the hydrological behaviors, offer potential solutions for better understanding a hydrological system and guidelines for improving the configuration and performance of conventional hydrological models. |
| WOS关键词 | TAIHANG MOUNTAIN ; RUNOFF ; BASIN ; WATER ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; VARIABILITY ; ETWATCH ; STORAGE ; MODELS |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| WOS研究方向 | Geology ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001395885700001 |
| 出版者 | COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/212582]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhou, Xinyao; Yang, Yonghui |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Adv Agr Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Hebei Bur Geol & Mineral Explorat & Dev, Hebei Mine & Geol Disaster Emergency Rescue Ctr, Land Resources Explorat Ctr, Shijiazhuang 050081, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 5.Aarhus Univ, Interdisciplinary Ctr Climate Change, Dept Environm Sci, iClimate, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark 6.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sino Danish Coll, Yanqihu Campus, Beijing 101408, Peoples R China 7.Aarhus Univ, Dept Agroecol, DK-8830 Tjele, Denmark 8.Morgan State Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Baltimore, MD 21251 USA 9.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Genet & Dev Biol, Ctr Agr Resources Res, Key Lab Agr Water Resources,Hebei Lab Agr Water Sa, Shijiazhuang 050021, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhou, Xinyao,Sheng, Zhuping,Manevski, Kiril,et al. Can system dynamics explain long-term hydrological behaviors? The role of endogenous linking structure[J]. HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,2025,29(1):159-177. |
| APA | Zhou, Xinyao.,Sheng, Zhuping.,Manevski, Kiril.,Zhao, Rongtian.,Zhang, Qingzhou.,...&Yang, Yonghui.(2025).Can system dynamics explain long-term hydrological behaviors? The role of endogenous linking structure.HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,29(1),159-177. |
| MLA | Zhou, Xinyao,et al."Can system dynamics explain long-term hydrological behaviors? The role of endogenous linking structure".HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 29.1(2025):159-177. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。