Ensemble Assessment of Extreme Precipitation Risk under 1.5 and 2.0°C Warming Targets in the Yangtze River Basin
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Mo, Xingguo2,3; Yue, Shuxu1,2,3; Hu, Shi3; Liu, Suxia2,3 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2024-12-01 |
| 卷号 | 38期号:6页码:1167-1183 |
| 关键词 | Equi-Ratio Cumulative Distribution Functions matching method (ERCDFm) 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C global warming targets extreme precipitation risk ratio Bayesian model averaging Coupled Model Intercom-parison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) Yangtze River basin |
| ISSN号 | 2095-6037 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s13351-024-3144-8 |
| 通讯作者 | Mo, Xingguo(moxg@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Changes in precipitation extremes and associated risks under the 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C global warming targets in the Yangtze River basin (YRB) were assessed. The projections from 10 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) were bias-corrected and averaged with Bayesian and arithmetic mean methods, respectively. The results show that the Bayesian weights can reflect the performance of each GCM in capturing seasonal precipitation extremes. Thus, its multimodel ensemble projections noticeably improve the performance of the mean, interannual variability, and trends of precipitation extremes. The areal-mean risks of Rx5day (maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation) are projected to increase by ratios of 3.3 in summer, 2.9 in autumn, 2.2 in spring, and 1.9 in winter under the 1.5 degrees C target. Spatially, the northwestern part of the YRB may experience the highest risk of increments in Rx5day extreme in summer and autumn. In response to an additional 0.5 degrees C warming from 1.5 to 2.0 degrees C, the risks of seasonal Rx5day extreme for all 20-, 50-, and 100-yr return periods are projected to increase respectively. The higher probabilities of extreme precipitation events under the warming targets may cause more hazardous flooding; therefore, new strategies and infrastructures for climate change and hydrological risk mitigation are imperative in the YRB. |
| WOS关键词 | ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ; MODEL PERFORMANCE ; MULTIMODEL PROJECTION ; FUTURE PRECIPITATION ; HEAVY-PRECIPITATION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; CHINA ; CMIP5 ; TEMPERATURE ; TRENDS |
| 资助项目 | National Key Research and Development Program of China[2022YFF0801804] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFA0603702] |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001412221200009 |
| 出版者 | SPRINGER HEIDELBERG |
| 资助机构 | National Key Research and Development Program of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/213055]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Mo, Xingguo |
| 作者单位 | 1.Natl Ctr Climate Change Strategy & Int Cooperat, Beijing 100035, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Sino Danish Ctr, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mo, Xingguo,Yue, Shuxu,Hu, Shi,et al. Ensemble Assessment of Extreme Precipitation Risk under 1.5 and 2.0°C Warming Targets in the Yangtze River Basin[J]. JOURNAL OF METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH,2024,38(6):1167-1183. |
| APA | Mo, Xingguo,Yue, Shuxu,Hu, Shi,&Liu, Suxia.(2024).Ensemble Assessment of Extreme Precipitation Risk under 1.5 and 2.0°C Warming Targets in the Yangtze River Basin.JOURNAL OF METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH,38(6),1167-1183. |
| MLA | Mo, Xingguo,et al."Ensemble Assessment of Extreme Precipitation Risk under 1.5 and 2.0°C Warming Targets in the Yangtze River Basin".JOURNAL OF METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH 38.6(2024):1167-1183. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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