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Findings on celestial pole offsets predictions in the second earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign (2nd EOP PCC)

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Winska, Malgorzata12; Kur, Tomasz11; Sliwinska-Bronowicz, Justyna10; Nastula, Jolanta10; Dobslaw, Henryk9; Partyka, Aleksander10; Belda, Santiago8; Bizouard, Christian7; Boggs, Dale6; Chin, Mike6
刊名EARTH PLANETS AND SPACE
出版日期2024-07-30
卷号76期号:1页码:21
关键词Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) Celestial pole offsets (CPO) Prediction
DOI10.1186/s40623-024-02042-3
英文摘要In 2021, the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) established a working group tasked with conducting the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC) to assess the current accuracy of EOP forecasts. From September 2021 to December 2022, EOP predictions submitted by participants from various institutes worldwide were systematically collected and evaluated. This article summarizes the campaign's outcomes, concentrating on the forecasts of the dX, dY, and d psi, d epsilon components of celestial pole offsets (CPO). After detailing the campaign participants and the methodologies employed, we conduct an in-depth analysis of the collected forecasts. We examine the discrepancies between observed and predicted CPO values and analyze their statistical characteristics such as mean, standard deviation, and range. To evaluate CPO forecasts, we computed the mean absolute error (MAE) using the IERS EOP 14 C04 solution as the reference dataset. We then compared the results obtained with forecasts provided by the IERS. The main goal of this study was to show the influence of different methods used on predictions accuracy. Depending on the evaluated prediction approach, the MAE values computed for day 10 of forecast were between 0.03 and 0.16 mas for dX, between 0.03 and 0.12 mas for dY, between 0.07 and 0.91 mas for d psi, and between 0.04 and 0.41 mas for d epsilon. For day 30 of prediction, the corresponding MAE values ranged between 0.03 and 0.12 for dX, and between 0.03 and 0.14 mas for dY. This research shows that machine learning algorithms are the most promising approach in CPO forecasting and provide the highest prediction accuracy (0.06 mas for dX and 0.08 mas for dY for day 10 of prediction).
WOS关键词LEAST-SQUARES ; ACCURACY ; COMBINATION ; PRECESSION ; FILTER ; VLBI
资助项目Narodowym Centrum Nauki
WOS研究方向Geology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001280937500001
出版者SPRINGER
资助机构Narodowym Centrum Nauki ; Narodowym Centrum Nauki ; Narodowym Centrum Nauki ; Narodowym Centrum Nauki ; Narodowym Centrum Nauki ; Narodowym Centrum Nauki ; Narodowym Centrum Nauki ; Narodowym Centrum Nauki
源URL[http://210.72.145.45/handle/361003/14492]  
专题国家授时中心_高精度时间传递与精密测定轨研究室
通讯作者Winska, Malgorzata
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Shanghai Astron Observ, CAS Key Lab Planetary Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Time Serv Ctr, Xian, Peoples R China
3.Tech Univ Berlin, Inst Geodesy & Geoinformat Sci, Berlin, Germany
4.Fed Agcy Cartog & Geodesy BKG, Frankfurt, Germany
5.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Geodesy & Photogrammetry, Zurich, Switzerland
6.CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, Pasadena, CA USA
7.Paris Observ, Paris, France
8.Univ Alicante, UAVAC, Alicante, Spain
9.Deutsch GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ, Dept Geodesy 1, Potsdam, Germany
10.Ctr Badan Kosmicznych Polskiej Akademii Nauk, Bartycka 18A, PL-00716 Warsaw, Poland
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Winska, Malgorzata,Kur, Tomasz,Sliwinska-Bronowicz, Justyna,et al. Findings on celestial pole offsets predictions in the second earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign (2nd EOP PCC)[J]. EARTH PLANETS AND SPACE,2024,76(1):21.
APA Winska, Malgorzata.,Kur, Tomasz.,Sliwinska-Bronowicz, Justyna.,Nastula, Jolanta.,Dobslaw, Henryk.,...&Zhao, Xin.(2024).Findings on celestial pole offsets predictions in the second earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign (2nd EOP PCC).EARTH PLANETS AND SPACE,76(1),21.
MLA Winska, Malgorzata,et al."Findings on celestial pole offsets predictions in the second earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign (2nd EOP PCC)".EARTH PLANETS AND SPACE 76.1(2024):21.

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