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Assessment of length-of-day and universal time predictions based on the results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Sliwinska-Bronowicz, Justyna20; Kur, Tomasz19; Winska, Malgorzata18; Dobslaw, Henryk17; Nastula, Jolanta20; Partyka, Aleksander20; Belda, Santiago16; Bizouard, Christian1; Boggs, Dale15; Bruni, Sara14
刊名JOURNAL OF GEODESY
出版日期2024-03-01
卷号98期号:3页码:34
关键词Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) Length-of-day (LOD) UT1-UTC Prediction
ISSN号0949-7714
DOI10.1007/s00190-024-01824-7
英文摘要Predicting Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) is crucial for precise positioning and navigation both on the Earth's surface and in space. In recent years, many approaches have been developed to forecast EOP, incorporating observed EOP as well as information on the effective angular momentum (EAM) derived from numerical models of the atmosphere, oceans, and land-surface dynamics. The Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC) aimed to comprehensively evaluate EOP forecasts from many international participants and identify the most promising prediction methodologies. This paper presents the validation results of predictions for universal time and length-of-day variations submitted during the 2nd EOP PCC, providing an assessment of their accuracy and reliability. We conduct a detailed evaluation of all valid forecasts using the IERS 14 C04 solution provided by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) as a reference and mean absolute error as the quality measure. Our analysis demonstrates that approaches based on machine learning or the combination of least squares and autoregression, with the use of EAM information as an additional input, provide the highest prediction accuracy for both investigated parameters. Utilizing precise EAM data and forecasts emerges as a pivotal factor in enhancing forecasting accuracy. Although several methods show some potential to outperform the IERS forecasts, the current standard predictions disseminated by IERS are highly reliable and can be fully recommended for operational purposes.
WOS关键词SHORT-TERM PREDICTION ; LEAST-SQUARES ; COMBINATION ; FILTER ; GPS ; SLR
资助项目Narodowe Centrum Nauki
WOS研究方向Geochemistry & Geophysics ; Remote Sensing
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001190564900001
出版者SPRINGER
资助机构Narodowe Centrum Nauki ; Narodowe Centrum Nauki ; Narodowe Centrum Nauki ; Narodowe Centrum Nauki ; Narodowe Centrum Nauki ; Narodowe Centrum Nauki ; Narodowe Centrum Nauki ; Narodowe Centrum Nauki
源URL[http://210.72.145.45/handle/361003/14741]  
专题国家授时中心_高精度时间传递与精密测定轨研究室
通讯作者Sliwinska-Bronowicz, Justyna
作者单位1.Observ Paris, SYRTE, Paris, France
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Shanghai Astron Observ, CAS Key Lab Planetary Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Time Serv Ctr, Xian, Peoples R China
4.Shandong Univ Technol, Zibo, Peoples R China
5.ESA, ESOC, Robert-Bosch-Str 5, Darmstadt, Germany
6.Tech Univ Berlin, Inst Geodesy & Geoinformat Sci, Berlin, Germany
7.Fed Agcy Cartog & Geodesy BKG, Frankfurt, Germany
8.LSE Space GmbH ESA, ESOC, Robert-Bosch-Str 5, Darmstadt, Germany
9.Chinese Acad Sci, Innovat Acad Precis Measurement Sci & Technol, Beijing, Peoples R China
10.AGH Univ Krakow, Adama Mickiewicza 30, PL-30059 Krakow, Poland
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Sliwinska-Bronowicz, Justyna,Kur, Tomasz,Winska, Malgorzata,et al. Assessment of length-of-day and universal time predictions based on the results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign[J]. JOURNAL OF GEODESY,2024,98(3):34.
APA Sliwinska-Bronowicz, Justyna.,Kur, Tomasz.,Winska, Malgorzata.,Dobslaw, Henryk.,Nastula, Jolanta.,...&Zhou, Zhijin.(2024).Assessment of length-of-day and universal time predictions based on the results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign.JOURNAL OF GEODESY,98(3),34.
MLA Sliwinska-Bronowicz, Justyna,et al."Assessment of length-of-day and universal time predictions based on the results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign".JOURNAL OF GEODESY 98.3(2024):34.

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来源：国家授时中心

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