Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Winter Wheat Production in the North China Plain from 1980 to 2020
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zheng, Jinhui1,2; Zhang, Shuai1,2 |
| 刊名 | AGRICULTURE-BASEL
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-03-01 |
| 卷号 | 15期号:5页码:449 |
| 关键词 | climate change winter wheat machine learning sustainable production |
| DOI | 10.3390/agriculture15050449 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | As a highly variable factor, climate plays a crucial role in winter wheat production. Quantifying its impact on crop yield and determining its relative importance is essential. This study uses the Random Forest (RF) algorithm to evaluate the effects of climate change on winter wheat yields in the North China Plain (1980-2020) and assess yield sensitivity to various climate indicators. The results show that the RF model performs well in simulating winter wheat yields across planting regions, with RRMSE values ranging from 12.88% to 22.06%, Spearman's r from 0.84 to 0.91, and R2 from 0.69 to 0.83. From 1980 to 2020, climate trends negatively affected winter wheat yields in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, and Jiangsu while promoting yield increases in Henan and Anhui. In general, a 10% increase in precipitation tends to enhance yields, except in northern Hebei, northern Shanxi, and Jiangsu. A 10% rise in solar radiation benefits most regions, although it leads to yield reductions in some areas of Anhui and Jiangsu. A 1 degrees C increase in temperature typically results in yield decreases, except in Beijing, southern Hebei, and parts of Shanxi and Henan. Among the three predictors, temperature is the most influential (33.81-44.19%), followed by solar radiation (29.01-37.47%) and precipitation (23.27-30.88%). These findings highlight the need for temperature-focused management strategies and region-specific approaches to optimize wheat yields and ensure sustainable production under climate change. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | CROP PRODUCTION ; HEAT-STRESS ; YIELD ; TRENDS ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; MANAGEMENT ; REGRESSION ; AUSTRALIA ; CULTIVAR |
| WOS研究方向 | Agriculture |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001442338600001 |
| 出版者 | MDPI |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/213292]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Shuai |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zheng, Jinhui,Zhang, Shuai. Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Winter Wheat Production in the North China Plain from 1980 to 2020[J]. AGRICULTURE-BASEL,2025,15(5):449. |
| APA | Zheng, Jinhui,&Zhang, Shuai.(2025).Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Winter Wheat Production in the North China Plain from 1980 to 2020.AGRICULTURE-BASEL,15(5),449. |
| MLA | Zheng, Jinhui,et al."Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Winter Wheat Production in the North China Plain from 1980 to 2020".AGRICULTURE-BASEL 15.5(2025):449. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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