A substantial reduction of total and group-specific population risk to compound heat and drought events in China through achieving carbon neutrality
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Chen, Jie1,2; An, Aohua2; Gao, Guoping2 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-01-15 |
| 卷号 | 489页码:144694 |
| 关键词 | Climate change Population exposure Compound heat and drought events Carbon neutrality SSP-RCP |
| ISSN号 | 0959-6526 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.144694 |
| 产权排序 | 2 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Compound climate extremes, such as compound heat and drought events (CHDEs), in combination with population growth and aging, pose a growing risk to the socioeconomic system. However, the potential risks of frequent and intense CHDEs under climate change on group-specific populations and the advantages of achieving carbon neutrality in reducing CHDE damage have not been extensively explored. Our research quantified total and group-specific population exposure to CHDEs in four future scenarios in China and examined the benefits of carbon neutrality. Results show total population exposure to CHDEs will increase significantly in all scenarios, reaching a maximum of 540.55 f 125.52 x 108 person-days in 2081-2100 under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 3-7.0, 3.93 f 0.91 times that of the base period (1995-2014). Exposure in southeastern China, particularly in Shandong, Hebei, Henan, and Jiangsu, is much higher than in inland northwestern China. The increase in exposure for the elderly is higher than that of children and working-age population, with the maximum value reaching 175.84 f 33.71 x 108 person-days, 9.57 f 1.83 times compared to the base period. Achieving carbon neutrality under SSP1-2.6 is projected to significantly reduce total population exposure by 72-84% in the late 21st century (2081-2100) than other scenarios in the same period. The reduction rate for the elderly ranges from 41% to 61%, which is less substantial than for children or working-age population. The effect of climate change is the primary factor in reducing exposure to the total population, children, and working-age population, while its interactive effect with population is the dominant contributor (53-56%) for the elderly. Thus, efforts to achieve carbon neutrality are urgently needed in China to reduce the number and inequality of the population exposed to CHDEs. Special attention should be paid to the elderly, who are particularly vulnerable and disproportionately affected by CHDEs. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT SCENARIOMIP ; CLIMATE ; EXPOSURE ; TEMPERATURE ; EXTREMES ; WEATHER ; CMIP6 |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001414378000001 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCI LTD |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/213349]  |
| 专题 | 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Chen, Jie |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Shanghai Ocean Univ, Coll Oceanog & Ecol Sci, Shanghai 201306, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chen, Jie,An, Aohua,Gao, Guoping. A substantial reduction of total and group-specific population risk to compound heat and drought events in China through achieving carbon neutrality[J]. JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,2025,489:144694. |
| APA | Chen, Jie,An, Aohua,&Gao, Guoping.(2025).A substantial reduction of total and group-specific population risk to compound heat and drought events in China through achieving carbon neutrality.JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,489,144694. |
| MLA | Chen, Jie,et al."A substantial reduction of total and group-specific population risk to compound heat and drought events in China through achieving carbon neutrality".JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 489(2025):144694. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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