Ecological risk assessment and uncertainty analysis of the Yellow River basin based on probability-loss
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wang, Qianxu3,4; Zhang, Pengyan3,4; Zhang, Jinbing4; Tian, Li2; Liu, Zhenyue3; Chen, Zhuo1 |
| 刊名 | ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-02-26 |
| 卷号 | N/A |
| 关键词 | Ecological risk Probability-loss Uncertainty analysis Monte Carlo Yellow River basin |
| ISSN号 | 1387-585X |
| DOI | 10.1007/s10668-025-06064-z |
| 产权排序 | 3 |
| 文献子类 | Article ; Early Access |
| 英文摘要 | Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is of the utmost importance to the ecological construction of the watershed. The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is an important geographical entity in the world, covering fragile ecosystem and important socio-economic system. However, environmental challenges such as land degradation and soil erosion have seriously hindered the sustainable development. In this study, the overall status of ecological risk (ER) in the YRB was comprehensively evaluated based on the probability-loss framework. The calculation framework is constituted by four integrated assessment indicators: the landscape risk index, the erosion sensitivity index, the land desertification sensitivity index and the ecological loss index. This approach integrates the traditional landscape risk index with indicators characterizing the ecological status of the basin, while also incorporating ecosystem services as ecological endpoints. Finally, the reliability of the ER index was analyzed using uncertainty and parameter sensitivity based on Monte Carlo simulation. We found that the ER of the YRB was severe. However, there was a clear trend of overall improvement, especially in the 2015-2020 periods when the highest-risk area exhibited a more pronounced decline. Human activities had adversely affected both low and high slope areas, resulting in increasing ecological sensitivity in high slope areas. ER was increasing for all landscape types that were more affected by human activities. The results of Monte Carlo simulation based on low (20%) and high (40%) uncertainties indicate that the constructed ERA model is generally applicable in the study area. The results obtained can serve as scientific references to promote the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River basin. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ; LAND-USE ; CHINA ; DESERTIFICATION ; SUSTAINABILITY ; MANAGEMENT ; MODELS ; AREAS ; CITY |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001431113100001 |
| 出版者 | SPRINGER |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/213315]  |
| 专题 | 千烟洲站森林生态系统研究中心_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Pengyan |
| 作者单位 | 1.Case Western Reserve Univ, Sch Med, Cleveland Hts, OH 44106 USA 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; 3.Henan Univ, Coll Geog & Environm Sci, Kaifeng 475004, Peoples R China; 4.Capital Univ Econ & Business, Sch Urban Econ & Publ Adm, Beijing 100070, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Qianxu,Zhang, Pengyan,Zhang, Jinbing,et al. Ecological risk assessment and uncertainty analysis of the Yellow River basin based on probability-loss[J]. ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY,2025,N/A. |
| APA | Wang, Qianxu,Zhang, Pengyan,Zhang, Jinbing,Tian, Li,Liu, Zhenyue,&Chen, Zhuo.(2025).Ecological risk assessment and uncertainty analysis of the Yellow River basin based on probability-loss.ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY,N/A. |
| MLA | Wang, Qianxu,et al."Ecological risk assessment and uncertainty analysis of the Yellow River basin based on probability-loss".ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY N/A(2025). |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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