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Multi-Source Forecast of Solar Cycle Flare Activity Using the Novel Informer-Based Models

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Cao, Jie1,2; Xu, Tingting1; Deng, Linhua1,3; Wan, Miao1; Zhao, Xinhua4,5,6; Peng, Yang7,8; Zhou, Xueliang1,9; Wang, Wenhua1,6; Huang, Lidong1,10; Wang, Wencheng1,11
刊名SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS
出版日期2025-04
卷号23期号:4
DOI10.1029/2024SW004322
文献子类Article
英文摘要Solar flares, the significant indicators of solar activity, have an impact on Earth's satellites and communication systems. Accurate prediction of solar flare events is crucial for mitigating these effects. In this work, we use multiple data sources, including Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites soft X-ray flare flux and the solar flare index, to forecast solar flare activity during Solar Cycle 25 (SC25). Our results show that: (a) The north-south asymmetry of solar flare activity during SC25 is well revealed, and the southern hemisphere is greater than the northern one. (b) The Gnevyshev peaks of chromospheric flare activity are clearly identified and they are deeper than other atmospheric activity indicators. The different timescales of solar flare responses to the geomagnetic and interplanetary magnetic fields may be the cause of the Gnevyshev peaks. (c) Chromospheric flare activity lags behind photospheric sunspot activity, indicating that changes in sunspot activity precede flare events. (d) The activity level of SC25 is influenced by the modulating effect of the Gleissberg Cycle, as supported by geomagnetic precursor indices. These results offer valuable insights into the temporal and spatial distribution of solar flare activity during SC25.
学科主题天文学 ; 太阳与太阳系
URL标识查看原文
出版地2000 FLORIDA AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20009 USA
WOS关键词TIME-SERIES ; INDEX ; ASYMMETRY ; PERIODICITIES ; RECONNECTION ; RADIATION ; PRECURSOR
资助项目National Nature Science Foundation of China[12463009]; Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects[202301AV070007]; Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects[202401AU070026]; Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects[202401AT070955]; Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects[202401AU070296]; The Yunnan Revitalization Talent Support Program Innovation Team Project[202405AS350012]; Scientific Research Foundation Project of Yunnan Education Department[2023J0624]; Scientific Research Foundation Project of Yunnan Education Department[2024Y469]; Scientific Research Foundation Project of Yunnan Education Department[2025Y0720]; Scientific Research Foundation Project of Yunnan Education Department[2025Y0721]; Scientific Research Foundation Project of Yunnan Education Department[2025J0502]; GHfund A[202407016295]
WOS研究方向Astronomy & Astrophysics ; Geochemistry & Geophysics ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001468920800001
出版者AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
资助机构National Nature Science Foundation of China[12463009] ; Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects[202301AV070007, 202401AU070026, 202401AT070955, 202401AU070296] ; The Yunnan Revitalization Talent Support Program Innovation Team Project[202405AS350012] ; Scientific Research Foundation Project of Yunnan Education Department[2023J0624, 2024Y469, 2025Y0720, 2025Y0721, 2025J0502] ; GHfund A[202407016295]
版本出版稿
源URL[http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/28275]  
专题云南天文台_中国科学院天体结构与演化重点实验室
作者单位1.School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Yunnan Minzu University, Kunming, China;
2.Contribution: Methodology, Writing - original draft;
3.Contribution: Validation, Writing - review & editing, Funding acquisition;
4.State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;
5.Radio Science and Technology Center (π Center), Chengdu, China;
6.Contribution: Writing - review & editing, Funding acquisition;
7.School of Economics and Management, Hebei University of Science and Technology, Shijiazhuang, China;
8.Contribution: ​Investigation, Resources;
9.Contribution: Visualization;
10.Contribution: Supervision;
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Cao, Jie,Xu, Tingting,Deng, Linhua,et al. Multi-Source Forecast of Solar Cycle Flare Activity Using the Novel Informer-Based Models[J]. SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS,2025,23(4).
APA Cao, Jie.,Xu, Tingting.,Deng, Linhua.,Wan, Miao.,Zhao, Xinhua.,...&Zhou, Weihong.(2025).Multi-Source Forecast of Solar Cycle Flare Activity Using the Novel Informer-Based Models.SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS,23(4).
MLA Cao, Jie,et al."Multi-Source Forecast of Solar Cycle Flare Activity Using the Novel Informer-Based Models".SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS 23.4(2025).

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：云南天文台

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