Skill comparisons and physical drivers of multi-decadal rapid warming of Indian Ocean in CMIP6 models
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhang, Zhanqing4,5,6 ; Guo, Xinying4,5,6; Long, Shangmin1,3; Jiang, Huan4,5,6; Zhang, Jiayi4,5,6; Li, Shihan4,5,6; Li, Xiaohua5,6; Ma, Jie5,6; Hu, Shijian1,2,3,4,5,6
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| 刊名 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-05-01 |
| 卷号 | 63期号:5页码:18 |
| 关键词 | Indian Ocean Multi-decadal warming CMIP6 Global warming |
| ISSN号 | 0930-7575 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s00382-025-07706-8 |
| 通讯作者 | Hu, Shijian(sjhu@hhu.edu.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Observations indicate that the upper-layer Indian Ocean (IO) has experienced multi-decadal rapid warming with a rate of approximately 0.18 degrees C/decade since the early 1990s. The ability of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to reproduce this rapid warming is essential but not well assessed, and the underlying physical drivers remain unclear. In this study, we examine the performance of 17 CMIP6 models in simulating this observed rapid warming in the IO, investigate the physical drivers responsible for the IO warming, and explore the origin of the biases in the CMIP6 models. We find that the IO warming in a majority of the CMIP6 models is stronger than that in observations, and the warming patterns in these models display significant disparities compared to observations. Four regions are important in determining the ability of CMIP6 models in reproducing the observed warming pattern. The CMIP6 models basically overestimate the warming trends in the western and northwestern IO but underestimate the warming trends in the eastern tropical and southern IO. Model skill is quantified using the Taylor diagram and Taylor skill score. It seems that the sea surface heat flux accounts for the rapid IO warming while the heat advection damps the warming. We suggest that the heat advection, especially the vertical heat advection, plays a crucial role in determining the inter-model spread and bias relative to observations, and the enhanced zonal heat transport associated with the Indonesian Throughflow and the decreased vertical heat advection led to the rapider warming after the 1990s than before. |
| WOS关键词 | INDONESIAN THROUGHFLOW ; PACIFIC ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; SALINITY ; EXCHANGE ; PRECIPITATION ; SIMULATIONS ; CIRCULATION ; TREND |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China ; World Climate Research Programme |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001482780700001 |
| 出版者 | SPRINGER |
| 源URL | [http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/201787]  |
| 专题 | 海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室 |
| 通讯作者 | Hu, Shijian |
| 作者单位 | 1.Hohai Univ, Key Lab Marine Hazards Forecasting, Minist Nat Resources, Nanjing, Peoples R China 2.Laoshan Lab, Qingdao 266237, Peoples R China 3.Hohai Univ, Coll Oceanog, Nanjing 210098, Peoples R China 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Marine Sci, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 5.Qingdao Marine Sci & Technol Ctr, Lab Ocean Dynam & Climate, Qingdao, Peoples R China 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Observat & Forecasting, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Zhanqing,Guo, Xinying,Long, Shangmin,et al. Skill comparisons and physical drivers of multi-decadal rapid warming of Indian Ocean in CMIP6 models[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2025,63(5):18. |
| APA | Zhang, Zhanqing.,Guo, Xinying.,Long, Shangmin.,Jiang, Huan.,Zhang, Jiayi.,...&Hu, Shijian.(2025).Skill comparisons and physical drivers of multi-decadal rapid warming of Indian Ocean in CMIP6 models.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,63(5),18. |
| MLA | Zhang, Zhanqing,et al."Skill comparisons and physical drivers of multi-decadal rapid warming of Indian Ocean in CMIP6 models".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 63.5(2025):18. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：海洋研究所
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