Development of a high-resolution dataset of future monthly surface solar radiation by combining CMIP6 projections and satellite-based retrievals
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | He, Jun-Mei1,2; Hong, Liang2; Lu, Ning3; Shao, Chang-Kun4; Yang, Kun1,4; Tang, Wen-Jun1 |
| 刊名 | ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-04-01 |
| 卷号 | 16期号:2页码:298-311 |
| 关键词 | Surface solar radiation CMIP6 Bayesian linear regression Correction |
| ISSN号 | 1674-9278 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.007 |
| 产权排序 | 3 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Accurate projections of future surface solar radiation (SSR) are important for assessing the impacts of climate change and the potential of solar energy. However, climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) exhibit notable uncertainties in SSR projections. This study aims to develop a high quality monthly SSR dataset during 1850-2100 by synthesizing CMIP6 model projections and satellite-derived retrievals using a Bayesian Linear Regression (BLR) method. Five CMIP6 models are selected based on their historical performance in simulating SSR. The BLR method assigns gridded weights to each model based on how well the historical simulations matched the satellite-based SSR product (called ISCCP-ITP-CNN) over the period 1983-2014. The weighted multi-model ensemble is calculated to generate a synthesized long-term SSR dataset. Evaluation against ground-based observations during historical periods (1960-2017) shows that the synthesized SSR outperforms individual CMIP6 models and their original multi-model mean, with a reduced RMSE from 32 to 36 W/m2 to 25 W/m2 and a bias from 5 to 13 W/m2 to 1 W/m2 on monthly scales. The spatial patterns also agree well with the ISCCP-ITP-CNN (1983-2018). The high-resolution (0.1 degrees x 0.1 degrees) synthesized SSR dataset provides monthly projections over historical experiments and four future shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) during 1850-2100, representing future SSR changes and associated climate impacts. The dataset is expected to enhance simulations of land surface processes and solar energy applications under a variety of future climate scenarios. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | ENERGY-BALANCE ; MODEL ; SENSITIVITY ; IRRADIANCE ; BUDGET |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001515043600001 |
| 出版者 | KEAI PUBLISHING LTD |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/214558]  |
| 专题 | 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Hong, Liang; Tang, Wen-Jun |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Natl Tibetan Plateau Data Ctr TPDC, State Key Lab Tibetan Plateau Earth Syst Environm, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; 2.Yunnan Normal Univ, Kunming 650500, Peoples R China; 3.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; 4.Tsinghua Univ, Inst Global Change Studies, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Minist Educ,Key Lab Earth Syst Modeling, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | He, Jun-Mei,Hong, Liang,Lu, Ning,et al. Development of a high-resolution dataset of future monthly surface solar radiation by combining CMIP6 projections and satellite-based retrievals[J]. ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH,2025,16(2):298-311. |
| APA | He, Jun-Mei,Hong, Liang,Lu, Ning,Shao, Chang-Kun,Yang, Kun,&Tang, Wen-Jun.(2025).Development of a high-resolution dataset of future monthly surface solar radiation by combining CMIP6 projections and satellite-based retrievals.ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH,16(2),298-311. |
| MLA | He, Jun-Mei,et al."Development of a high-resolution dataset of future monthly surface solar radiation by combining CMIP6 projections and satellite-based retrievals".ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH 16.2(2025):298-311. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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