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An extension of the logistic function to account for nonstationary drought losses

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Zhao, Tongtiegang1; Chen, Zecong1; Zhang, Yongyong2; Zhang, Bingyao3; Li, Yu3
刊名HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
出版日期2025-06-11
卷号29期号:11页码:2429-2443
ISSN号1027-5606
DOI10.5194/hess-29-2429-2025
产权排序2
文献子类Article
英文摘要While the stationary intensity loss function is fundamental to drought impact assessment, the relationship between drought loss and intensity can change as time progresses owing to socio-economic developments. This paper addresses this critical gap by modelling nonstationary drought losses. Specifically, time is explicitly formulated by linear and quadratic functions and then incorporated into the magnitude, shape and location parameters of the logistic function to derive six nonstationary intensity loss functions in total. To examine the effectiveness of this approach, a case study is designed for drought-affected populations by province in mainland China during the period from 2006 to 2023. The results highlight the existence of nonstationarity in that the drought-affected population exhibits significant correlation not only with the standard precipitation index but also with time. The proposed nonstationary intensity loss functions are shown to outperform not only the classic logistic function but also the linear regression. They present effective characterizations of observed drought loss in different ways: (1) the nonstationary function with the flexible magnitude parameter fits the data by adjusting the maximum drought loss by year; (2) the nonstationary function with the flexible shape parameter works by modifying the growth rate of drought loss with intensity; and (3) the nonstationary function with the flexible location parameter acts by shifting the response curves along the axis by year. Among the nonstationary logistic functions, the function incorporating the linear function of time into the magnitude parameter generally outperforms the others in terms of having a high coefficient of determination, a low Bayesian information criterion and an explicit physical meaning. Taken together, the nonstationary intensity loss functions developed in this paper can serve as an effective tool for drought management.
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WOS研究方向Geology ; Water Resources
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001508090200001
出版者COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/214535]  
专题陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文
通讯作者Zhao, Tongtiegang; Chen, Zecong
作者单位1.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Civil Engn, Southern Marine Sci & Engn Guangdong Lab Zhuhai, Guangzhou 510275, Peoples R China;
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China;
3.Dalian Univ Technol, Sch Hydraul Engn, Dalian 116024, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Zhao, Tongtiegang,Chen, Zecong,Zhang, Yongyong,et al. An extension of the logistic function to account for nonstationary drought losses[J]. HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,2025,29(11):2429-2443.
APA Zhao, Tongtiegang,Chen, Zecong,Zhang, Yongyong,Zhang, Bingyao,&Li, Yu.(2025).An extension of the logistic function to account for nonstationary drought losses.HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,29(11),2429-2443.
MLA Zhao, Tongtiegang,et al."An extension of the logistic function to account for nonstationary drought losses".HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 29.11(2025):2429-2443.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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