Projected changes in average and extreme precipitation under global warming in Vietnam
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Tran, Thuy Chi1,2; Tang, Qiuhong1,2; Zhao, Gang1; Wright, Nigel3 |
| 刊名 | NATURAL HAZARDS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-06-11 |
| 卷号 | N/A |
| 关键词 | Global warming Extreme precipitation CMIP6 Bias correction Vietnam |
| ISSN号 | 0921-030X |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11069-025-07386-x |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article ; Early Access |
| 英文摘要 | Vietnam, with its long coastline and low-lying river deltas, is highly vulnerable to flooding and extreme precipitation events. Climate change is likely to exacerbate these risks by intensifying precipitation in a warmer, moister atmosphere. While the Clausius-Clapeyron relation suggests a 6%-7% increase in atmospheric moisture per degree of warming, actual changes in average and extreme precipitation can deviate from this rate due to regional variations in moisture availability, atmospheric convection, and other climatic factors. However, the scarcity of high-quality future climate data for Vietnam has limited our ability to assess the response of extreme precipitation to different levels of global warming. In this study, we bias-corrected daily precipitation data from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to evaluate future changes in annual average and extreme daily precipitation under four global warming scenarios across two future time periods. Results indicate that while average precipitation shows relatively small changes, extreme precipitation is projected to increase, with the magnitude rising by 12.1% between 2030 and 2059 and by 19.3% between 2070 and 2099 compared to current levels. For each degree of global warming, extreme precipitation in Vietnam is expected to rise by 5.4%, with a more significant increase in the northern regions. These findings underscore the substantial impact of global warming on flood risks in Vietnam, highlighting the urgent need for effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | CLIMATE MODEL ; TEMPERATURE EXTREMES ; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; BIAS CORRECTION ; RAINFALL ; IMPACTS ; TRENDS |
| WOS研究方向 | Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001507232100001 |
| 出版者 | SPRINGER |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/214618]  |
| 专题 | 陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Tang, Qiuhong; Zhao, Gang |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.Univ Birmingham, Sch Engn, Birmingham, England |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tran, Thuy Chi,Tang, Qiuhong,Zhao, Gang,et al. Projected changes in average and extreme precipitation under global warming in Vietnam[J]. NATURAL HAZARDS,2025,N/A. |
| APA | Tran, Thuy Chi,Tang, Qiuhong,Zhao, Gang,&Wright, Nigel.(2025).Projected changes in average and extreme precipitation under global warming in Vietnam.NATURAL HAZARDS,N/A. |
| MLA | Tran, Thuy Chi,et al."Projected changes in average and extreme precipitation under global warming in Vietnam".NATURAL HAZARDS N/A(2025). |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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