Prediction of the Annual Variation of Groundwater Depth and Its Probability Based on MCAR Model and Copula Functions: A Case Study in Beijing, China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Han, Yan1,2; Zhang, Xiaoling3; Lv, Aifeng1,2; Zhu, Wenbin1,2 |
| 刊名 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-06-01 |
| 卷号 | 61期号:6页码:e2024WR038238 |
| 关键词 | groundwater depth simulation model multivariable probability copula functions |
| ISSN号 | 0043-1397 |
| DOI | 10.1029/2024WR038238 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Groundwater (GW) is the primary water source of socio-economic development in water-deficient regions, and long-term overexploitation may cause GW depletion and deterioration. In this study, after analyzing the relationship between GW level and related factors, the main influencing factors were identified from the perspective of climate change and human activity. A novel and comprehensive prediction method for GW depth was developed by combining the multivariable controlled auto-regressive model and copula functions. The capabilities of the proposed method extend beyond GW depth predictions in the plain area, as it also quantitatively assesses the probability of GW depth variation. The method was validated by using it to simulate GW depth in Beijing of China during 2019-2022, and the results indicate that the errors between simulated and observed GW depth are less than 1.5%. The Beijing's GW depth is likely to be gradually recovery with an increase in precipitation and cross-regional water diversion in the future. The probability of Beijing's GW depth reaching 7.50 m by 2035 is 0.463 under annual average precipitation, ETa and inbound runoff. This study provides an effective method to predict GW depth variation and its probability in plain areas, and it also offers valuable insight for the protection and sustainable development of regional GW resources. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | PROJECT ; PLAIN |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001510535200001 |
| 出版者 | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/214629]  |
| 专题 | 陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Han, Yan; Lv, Aifeng |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Urban Secur & Disaster Engn, Minist Educ, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Han, Yan,Zhang, Xiaoling,Lv, Aifeng,et al. Prediction of the Annual Variation of Groundwater Depth and Its Probability Based on MCAR Model and Copula Functions: A Case Study in Beijing, China[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2025,61(6):e2024WR038238. |
| APA | Han, Yan,Zhang, Xiaoling,Lv, Aifeng,&Zhu, Wenbin.(2025).Prediction of the Annual Variation of Groundwater Depth and Its Probability Based on MCAR Model and Copula Functions: A Case Study in Beijing, China.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,61(6),e2024WR038238. |
| MLA | Han, Yan,et al."Prediction of the Annual Variation of Groundwater Depth and Its Probability Based on MCAR Model and Copula Functions: A Case Study in Beijing, China".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 61.6(2025):e2024WR038238. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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