Spatiotemporal dynamics of northern Caspian shorelines (1985-2023) and implications for coastal management: Lessons from the Aral Sea
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Duan, Zihao1,2; Wang, Guangsheng3; Hu, Jielong1; Yu, Tong3; Chen, Songgui1; Zhang, Yajing1; Wang, Yang1; Liu, Haicheng1; Zhao, Xu1; Chen, Hanbao1 |
| 刊名 | PLOS ONE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025 |
| 卷号 | 20期号:6页码:e0325546 |
| DOI | 10.1371/journal.pone.0325546 |
| 产权排序 | 2 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Dynamic changes to the northern Caspian Sea shoreline have significant ecological implications, including impacts to biodiversity and the surrounding environment. This study employs Landsat datasets, historical records, and geographic information systems (GIS) to quantitatively analyze spatiotemporal variations along the northern Caspian Sea coastline from 1985 to 2023. The findings demonstrate pronounced cyclic variations in the Caspian Sea's water level. Compared to 1930, the water level decreased by 2.6 m by 2023, with 1935 marking the onset of a significant downward trend. From 1995 to 2023, a pronounced decline in the water level at a rate of 6.1 cm/year was observed. Multiscale temporal oscillations in water levels revealed periodic rises and falls with cycles ranging from 6-8 years to 10-16 years. Due to the broad and shallow morphology of the northern Caspian Sea, fluctuations in water level have resulted in significant displacements of the northern coastline. Between 1985 and 2023, the shoreline length decreased by 262 km, which is equivalent to a 17% reduction. The intensity of the coastline length index reached a critical point during from 2010 to 2015, after which it declined sharply by 3.67. By 2023, the coastline had shifted seaward by 1.33 x 10(4) km2 relative to that in 1985. This continuous retreat of the shoreline poses a severe threat to the ecological stability of the northern Caspian Sea. If the trend persists, then the disappearance of the eastern basin of the South Aral Sea may be replicated in the northern Caspian Sea by 2100. These findings provide critical insights for formulating effective coastal management strategies and conservation initiatives. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | WATER INDEX NDWI ; LEVEL VARIABILITY ; SATELLITE ; COASTLINE ; RIVER ; HISTORY ; DECLINE ; FUTURE |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001502962000006 |
| 出版者 | PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/214662]  |
| 专题 | 生态系统网络观测与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Hu, Jielong; Chen, Songgui |
| 作者单位 | 1.Tianjin Res Inst Water Transport Engn, Natl Engn Lab Port Hydraul Construct Technol, Tianjin, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Ecosyst Network Observat & Modeling, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.China Harbour Engn Co Ltd, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Duan, Zihao,Wang, Guangsheng,Hu, Jielong,et al. Spatiotemporal dynamics of northern Caspian shorelines (1985-2023) and implications for coastal management: Lessons from the Aral Sea[J]. PLOS ONE,2025,20(6):e0325546. |
| APA | Duan, Zihao.,Wang, Guangsheng.,Hu, Jielong.,Yu, Tong.,Chen, Songgui.,...&Chen, Hanbao.(2025).Spatiotemporal dynamics of northern Caspian shorelines (1985-2023) and implications for coastal management: Lessons from the Aral Sea.PLOS ONE,20(6),e0325546. |
| MLA | Duan, Zihao,et al."Spatiotemporal dynamics of northern Caspian shorelines (1985-2023) and implications for coastal management: Lessons from the Aral Sea".PLOS ONE 20.6(2025):e0325546. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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