中国科学院机构知识库网格
Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid
A hybrid framework for real-time flash flood forecasting in small ungauged catchments: integrating hydrodynamic simulations with LSTM networks

文献类型:期刊论文

作者An, Huicong2; Ouyang, Chaojun1,2
刊名JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
出版日期2025-11-01
卷号661页码:11
关键词Flash flood forecasting Hybrid modeling Surrogate model Computational efficiency Ungauged catchment
ISSN号0022-1694
DOI10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133688
英文摘要

Climate-driven flash floods increasingly threaten lives and infrastructure in data-scarce small catchments. This study proposes a hybrid framework integrating physically-based hydrodynamic modeling with a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) surrogate model to enable rapid and accurate forecasts. The framework innovatively generates physics-guided synthetic training data through high-fidelity hydrodynamic simulations, effectively circumventing reliance on scarce historical runoff records. The LSTM surrogate model, trained exclusively on computationally generated rainfall-runoff scenarios, achieves high accurate predictions comparable to hydrodynamic simulations (RMSE: 0.358-0.494 m3/s). Meanwhile, the surrogate model outperforming traditional methods by 2-3 orders of magnitude in computational efficiency, effectively overcoming the computational efficiency barrier. By bridging the accuracy-speed dichotomy through physics-informed machine learning, the proposed framework establishes a new paradigm for real-time flood risk management in observation-poor environments.

WOS关键词OVERLAND-FLOW ; MODEL ; EFFICIENT
资助项目National Key Research and Development Program of China[2024YFC3213200] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42401096] ; Technology Research Program of Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences[IMHE-CXTD-04] ; Sichuan Science and Technology Program[2024NSFSC0780] ; Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF[GZC20232570]
WOS研究方向Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001517150600003
出版者ELSEVIER
资助机构National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Technology Research Program of Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Sichuan Science and Technology Program ; Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF
源URL[http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/58986]  
专题成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
通讯作者Ouyang, Chaojun
作者单位1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Key Lab Mt Hazards & Engn Resilience, Chengdu 610299, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
An, Huicong,Ouyang, Chaojun. A hybrid framework for real-time flash flood forecasting in small ungauged catchments: integrating hydrodynamic simulations with LSTM networks[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2025,661:11.
APA An, Huicong,&Ouyang, Chaojun.(2025).A hybrid framework for real-time flash flood forecasting in small ungauged catchments: integrating hydrodynamic simulations with LSTM networks.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,661,11.
MLA An, Huicong,et al."A hybrid framework for real-time flash flood forecasting in small ungauged catchments: integrating hydrodynamic simulations with LSTM networks".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 661(2025):11.

入库方式: OAI收割

来源:成都山地灾害与环境研究所

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