A hybrid framework for real-time flash flood forecasting in small ungauged catchments: integrating hydrodynamic simulations with LSTM networks
文献类型:期刊论文
| 作者 | An, Huicong2; Ouyang, Chaojun1,2
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| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
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| 出版日期 | 2025-11-01 |
| 卷号 | 661页码:11 |
| 关键词 | Flash flood forecasting Hybrid modeling Surrogate model Computational efficiency Ungauged catchment |
| ISSN号 | 0022-1694 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133688 |
| 英文摘要 | Climate-driven flash floods increasingly threaten lives and infrastructure in data-scarce small catchments. This study proposes a hybrid framework integrating physically-based hydrodynamic modeling with a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) surrogate model to enable rapid and accurate forecasts. The framework innovatively generates physics-guided synthetic training data through high-fidelity hydrodynamic simulations, effectively circumventing reliance on scarce historical runoff records. The LSTM surrogate model, trained exclusively on computationally generated rainfall-runoff scenarios, achieves high accurate predictions comparable to hydrodynamic simulations (RMSE: 0.358-0.494 m3/s). Meanwhile, the surrogate model outperforming traditional methods by 2-3 orders of magnitude in computational efficiency, effectively overcoming the computational efficiency barrier. By bridging the accuracy-speed dichotomy through physics-informed machine learning, the proposed framework establishes a new paradigm for real-time flood risk management in observation-poor environments. |
| WOS关键词 | OVERLAND-FLOW ; MODEL ; EFFICIENT |
| 资助项目 | National Key Research and Development Program of China[2024YFC3213200] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42401096] ; Technology Research Program of Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences[IMHE-CXTD-04] ; Sichuan Science and Technology Program[2024NSFSC0780] ; Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF[GZC20232570] |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001517150600003 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 资助机构 | National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Technology Research Program of Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Sichuan Science and Technology Program ; Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF |
| 源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/58986] ![]() |
| 专题 | 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 |
| 通讯作者 | Ouyang, Chaojun |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Key Lab Mt Hazards & Engn Resilience, Chengdu 610299, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | An, Huicong,Ouyang, Chaojun. A hybrid framework for real-time flash flood forecasting in small ungauged catchments: integrating hydrodynamic simulations with LSTM networks[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2025,661:11. |
| APA | An, Huicong,&Ouyang, Chaojun.(2025).A hybrid framework for real-time flash flood forecasting in small ungauged catchments: integrating hydrodynamic simulations with LSTM networks.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,661,11. |
| MLA | An, Huicong,et al."A hybrid framework for real-time flash flood forecasting in small ungauged catchments: integrating hydrodynamic simulations with LSTM networks".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 661(2025):11. |
入库方式: OAI收割
来源:成都山地灾害与环境研究所
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