Impact of climate change on landslides along N-15 Highway, northern Pakistan
文献类型:期刊论文
| 作者 | Ramzan, Muhammad4,5; Cui, Peng3 ; Ualiyeva, Daniya2,4; Mukhtar, Hamza4,5; Bazai, Nazir Ahmed1,5; Baig, Muhammad Aslam4,5
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| 刊名 | ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
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| 出版日期 | 2025-04-01 |
| 卷号 | 16期号:2页码:397-408 |
| 关键词 | Climate change Landslides Debris flow Pakistan Himalayas Future climate scenarios |
| ISSN号 | 1674-9278 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.004 |
| 英文摘要 | Landslides, which are aggravated by climate change, greatly threaten mountainous regions like northern Pakistan. However, existing research lacks a complete, region-specific analysis of the climatic and environmental factors driving landslides across various climatic zones, specifically in vulnerable areas such as northern Pakistan. This study explores the N-15 Highway in northern Pakistan. This region is frequently impacted by landslides induced by extreme climatic events, including heavy rainfall and flooding, which usually lead to blockages along the route. We collected a complete landslide inventory using 455 satellite images from 1990 to 2023 and ground surveys. We also analysed the relationship between landslides and climate change over the period of 1990-2023, encompassing soil moisture, vegetation, precipitation, temperature and snow cover. Using meteorological data, we found that the frequency of landslides rose exponentially from 1990 to 2023 due to the impacts of climate change. Especially after 2005, substantial increases in precipitation, temperature and snowmelt led to a more significant rise in landslide occurrences (p < 0.05). In the warm season (April-October), 84.1% of the landslides occurred, which were mainly due to precipitation and snowmelt. Balakot, Babusar-Naran and Chilas were the primary areas along the highway, each with distinct landslide mechanisms. In the Balakot region, which is characterised by sub-tropical conditions, high precipitation played the leading role in landslide occurrences. Landslides at Babusar-Naran, which is known for Alpine conditions, were mostly driven by precipitation, soil moisture fluctuations and snowmelt dynamics. Geological reasons and high temperatures influenced the Chilas region, which is characterised by semi-arid conditions. The EC-Earth3 model from CMIP6 predicts a 1.6-6.5 degrees C warming and a 35% rise in precipitation by 2100, with more extreme variations under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. These changes are likely to result in arise in the frequency of landslides. We suggest improving ground observation networks and utilising multiple datasets to better understand the relationship between landslides and climatic variables, which enables highly accurate risk assessment and management in high-mountain areas under the warming climate. |
| WOS关键词 | SUSCEPTIBILITY ; DATABASE |
| 资助项目 | Alliance of International Science Organizations (ANSO) ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP)[2019QZKK0906] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42350410445] ; National Key R & D Program of China[2023YFC3008300] ; National Key R & D Program of China[2023YFC3008301] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001515676000001 |
| 出版者 | KEAI PUBLISHING LTD |
| 资助机构 | Alliance of International Science Organizations (ANSO) ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key R & D Program of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/58995] ![]() |
| 专题 | 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 |
| 通讯作者 | Cui, Peng; Bazai, Nazir Ahmed |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci CAS, Higher Educ Commiss HEC, China Pakistan Joint Res Ctr Earth Sci, Islamabad 45320, Pakistan 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Chengdu Inst Biol, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, State Key Lab Mt Hazards & Engn Resilience, Chengdu 610299, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ramzan, Muhammad,Cui, Peng,Ualiyeva, Daniya,et al. Impact of climate change on landslides along N-15 Highway, northern Pakistan[J]. ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH,2025,16(2):397-408. |
| APA | Ramzan, Muhammad,Cui, Peng,Ualiyeva, Daniya,Mukhtar, Hamza,Bazai, Nazir Ahmed,&Baig, Muhammad Aslam.(2025).Impact of climate change on landslides along N-15 Highway, northern Pakistan.ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH,16(2),397-408. |
| MLA | Ramzan, Muhammad,et al."Impact of climate change on landslides along N-15 Highway, northern Pakistan".ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH 16.2(2025):397-408. |
入库方式: OAI收割
来源:成都山地灾害与环境研究所
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