中国科学院机构知识库网格
Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid
Exploring the intersection between coastal flood hazards and socioeconomic exposure: Evidence from China's coastal zone

文献类型:期刊论文

作者Xu, He1,3; Hou, Xiyong2; Zhang, Baolei1; Bray, Michaela3; Pan, Shunqi3; Huang, Hao1
刊名JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
出版日期2025-10-01
卷号393页码:13
关键词Coastal flood hazards Socioeconomic exposure China's coastal zone Adaptation strategies Coastal flood hazards Socioeconomic exposure Bivariate local Moran's I China's coastal zone Adaptation strategies
ISSN号0301-4797
DOI10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.127072
英文摘要

Sea level rise and consequent coastal flooding pose an increasing threat to socioeconomic stability globally, particularly in China's coastal zone (CCZ). However, the long-term spatial correlations between coastal flood hazards (CFH) and socioeconomic exposure (SEE) remain unclear, thereby limiting the accuracy of coastal flood risk assessments. Consequently, novel frameworks are necessary for effective risk management and adaptation strategies. This study employs the Bivariate Local Moran's I approach to analyze the spatiotemporal intersection patterns between CFH and SEE from 2030 to 2100 in the CCZ under various Representative Concentration Pathway-Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (RCP-SSP) scenarios. CFH is evaluated using a depth-affected function, while SEE is quantified through the analytic hierarchy process-entropy weighting (AHP-EW) method. The results indicate that the areas of "High-High" clusters (regions where higher CFH levels are surrounded by higher SEE levels) will increase to 10.26 x 10(3) km(2), 11.86 x 10(3) km(2), and 14.33 x 10(3) km(2) by 2100 under the RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, and RCP8.5-SSP5 scenarios, respectively. These clusters are primarily located in Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, where immediate and robust interventions are essential to protect human and economic assets. By contrast, the areas of "High-Low" clusters (regions where higher CFH levels are surrounded by lower SEE levels) will expand to 17.78 x 10(3) km(2), 16.15 x 10(3) km(2), and 17.31 x 10(3) km(2) by 2100 under the RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, and RCP8.5-SSP5 scenarios, respectively. These clusters are mainly located in Jiangsu, Shandong, and Shanghai, where long-term preventive risk management measures are recommended. By 2100, the GDP and population in the "High-High" clusters are projected to reach $2675.32 billion (13.17 million people), respectively, under the RCP8.5-SSP5 scenario, representing the most severe threat to both economic and population stability. These findings underscore the importance of applying a differentiated risk management approach when formulating coastal flood adaptation policies, as well as providing valuable insights for enhancing the resilience of vulnerable areas in the CCZ to climate change.

WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001594824500006
源URL[http://ir.yic.ac.cn/handle/133337/41515]  
专题烟台海岸带研究所_海岸带信息集成与综合管理实验室
通讯作者Zhang, Baolei
作者单位1.Shandong Normal Univ, Coll Geog & Environm, Jinan, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Yantai Inst Coastal Zone Res, Yantai, Shandong, Peoples R China
3.Cardiff Univ, Hydroenvironm Res Ctr, Sch Engn, Cardiff, Wales
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Xu, He,Hou, Xiyong,Zhang, Baolei,et al. Exploring the intersection between coastal flood hazards and socioeconomic exposure: Evidence from China's coastal zone[J]. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT,2025,393:13.
APA Xu, He,Hou, Xiyong,Zhang, Baolei,Bray, Michaela,Pan, Shunqi,&Huang, Hao.(2025).Exploring the intersection between coastal flood hazards and socioeconomic exposure: Evidence from China's coastal zone.JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT,393,13.
MLA Xu, He,et al."Exploring the intersection between coastal flood hazards and socioeconomic exposure: Evidence from China's coastal zone".JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 393(2025):13.

入库方式: OAI收割

来源:烟台海岸带研究所

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