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Impacts of future climate change on runoff and its components for the Vanj river basin in the western Pamir

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Murodov, Murodkhudzha1,7,8,10; Li, Lanhai1,9,10; Weili, Duan1; Nazrialo, Sheralizoda7; Eshrat, Fatima6; Farhod, Nasrulloev7; Khanal, Sonu5; Safarov, Mustafo1,8; Murodov, Amirkhamza4; Bu, Lingjie1,9,10
刊名JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES
出版日期2025-12-01
卷号62页码:102916
关键词Vanj river basin Climate change SPHY model Runoff components CMIP6 SSPs
DOI10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102916
产权排序8
文献子类Article
英文摘要Study region: The Vanj River Basin (VRB) in Tajikistan is a glacierized catchment where meltwater is a crucial water source for irrigation, hydropower, and downstream ecosystems in Central Asia. Extensive glacier coverage makes basin runoff highly sensitive to climate change. Study focus: This study employed the cryospheric-hydrological model Spatial Processes in Hydrology (SPHY) to project streamflow under future climate scenarios. The model was calibrated for 2000-2010 and validated for 2011-2015 using European ReAnalysis (ERA5) data. Climate forcing was generated by downscaling ERA5 data and resampling Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Global Climate Model outputs to the model resolution of 0.01 degrees x 0.01 degrees, followed by bias correction using observed data. Simulations were carried out for the historical (2000-2023), near- (2029-2052), mid- (2053-2076), and far-future (2077-2100) periods under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). New hydrological insights: Mean annual temperature is projected to rise by + 1.0 degrees C, + 2.3 degrees C, and + 5.5 degrees C under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively, by the end of the century. Glaciers are expected to lose-23 %, -27 %, and-77 % of their area, while annual runoff declines by-33 %, -32.7 %, and-17.3 %. The peak of snowmelt runoff is projected to shift from July to June, and seasonal flow variability is likely to intensify due to changing precipitation and temperature. These results highlight the urgent need for adaptive water management and sustainable hydropower planning in glacier-fed catchments of Central Asia.
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WOS关键词GLACIER MASS BALANCES ; WATER AVAILABILITY ; TIBETAN PLATEAU ; CENTRAL-ASIA ; NARYN BASIN ; UPPER INDUS ; SNOW COVER ; TIEN-SHAN ; SCALE ; MELT
WOS研究方向Water Resources
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001618636900002
出版者ELSEVIER
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/219403]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Li, Lanhai
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Ecol Safety & Sustainable Dev Arid L, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China;
2.Natl Res Univ, Tashkent Inst Irrigat & Agr Mechanizat Engineers, Dept Hydraul & Hydro Informat, Tashkent 60111496, Uzbekistan
3.Natl Acad Sci Tajikistan, Inst Water Problems Hydropower & Ecol, Dushanbe 734042, Tajikistan;
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China;
5.Hydrominds, Utrecht, Netherlands;
6.Univ Potsdam, Inst Environm Sci & Geog, Potsdam, Germany;
7.Natl Acad Sci Tajikistan, State Sci Inst Ctr Study Glaciers, Dushanbe 734025, Tajikistan;
8.Res Ctr Ecol & Environm Cent Asia Dushanbe, Dushanbe 734063, Tajikistan;
9.Zhejiang Univ Technol, 999 Changhong East St, Huzhou 310014, Zhejiang, Peoples R China;
10.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China;
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Murodov, Murodkhudzha,Li, Lanhai,Weili, Duan,et al. Impacts of future climate change on runoff and its components for the Vanj river basin in the western Pamir[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES,2025,62:102916.
APA Murodov, Murodkhudzha.,Li, Lanhai.,Weili, Duan.,Nazrialo, Sheralizoda.,Eshrat, Fatima.,...&Gulakhmadov, Aminjon.(2025).Impacts of future climate change on runoff and its components for the Vanj river basin in the western Pamir.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES,62,102916.
MLA Murodov, Murodkhudzha,et al."Impacts of future climate change on runoff and its components for the Vanj river basin in the western Pamir".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES 62(2025):102916.

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来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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