Simulating land use change for sustainability: a case study of the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Qiao, Xiang2,3; Liu, Hongguang2,3; Hao, Zhixin1,4; Gong, Ping2,3; Liu, Yang1,4; Yang, Changkun2,3; Li, Pengfei2,3 |
| 刊名 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DIGITAL EARTH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-12-31 |
| 卷号 | 18期号:1页码:2524055 |
| 关键词 | Intensity map system dynamics model PLUS model scenario analysis sustainable land use |
| ISSN号 | 1753-8947 |
| DOI | 10.1080/17538947.2025.2524055 |
| 产权排序 | 3 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | The north slope of the Tianshan Mountains (NSTM), an arid region in northwest China, faces challenges including human-land conflicts, water imbalances, and ecological fragility. As a key urban cluster in the nation's sustainable development plan, understanding land use change and future trends is crucial for effective planning. However, the complexity of land use systems and the limitations of existing models in capturing temporal and spatial dynamics pose challenges. Therefore, this study integrates the System Dynamics (SD) and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) models to analyze historical and projected land use change on the NSTM and proposes targeted management strategies focused on food security and ecological protection. Results indicate that from 2000 to 2020, land use changes primarily involved interconversion among cultivated land, grassland, and unused land, with varying intensities. The integrated SD and PLUS model simulated future land use trends with 98.84% accuracy and a Kappa Coefficient of 0.98. Under all scenarios (SSP119, SSP245, and SSP585), ecological land areas were primarily converted to cultivated land, whereas construction land expanded into adjacent cultivated areas. Based on the spatial patterns of major land use change, we propose targeted management measures for key areas to support sustainable ecological practices in arid regions. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | MODEL |
| WOS研究方向 | Physical Geography ; Remote Sensing |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001525518600001 |
| 出版者 | TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/215299]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Li, Pengfei |
| 作者单位 | 1.Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.Shihezi Univ, Coll Water Conservancy & Architectural Engn, Shihezi, Peoples R China; 3.Key Lab Modern Water Saving Irrigat Xinjiang Prod, Shihezi, Peoples R China; 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Qiao, Xiang,Liu, Hongguang,Hao, Zhixin,et al. Simulating land use change for sustainability: a case study of the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DIGITAL EARTH,2025,18(1):2524055. |
| APA | Qiao, Xiang.,Liu, Hongguang.,Hao, Zhixin.,Gong, Ping.,Liu, Yang.,...&Li, Pengfei.(2025).Simulating land use change for sustainability: a case study of the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DIGITAL EARTH,18(1),2524055. |
| MLA | Qiao, Xiang,et al."Simulating land use change for sustainability: a case study of the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DIGITAL EARTH 18.1(2025):2524055. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。