Overcoming wheat yield stagnation in China depends more on cultivar improvements than water and fertilizer management
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhuang, Huimin1,5; Zhang, Zhao1,5; Xu, Jialu1,5; Han, Jichong3,5; Cheng, Fei1,5; Tao, Fulu2,4 |
| 刊名 | FIELD CROPS RESEARCH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-11-01 |
| 卷号 | 333页码:110089 |
| 关键词 | Yield potential Cultivars improvement Climatic impact Technological advance Sustainable wheat production |
| ISSN号 | 0378-4290 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.fcr.2025.110089 |
| 产权排序 | 4 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Context or problem Crop yield stagnation has become a widespread challenge, posing severe threats to global food security. Understanding the dynamics of potential yields (Yp), actual yields and their drivers is essential for promoting sustainable agriculture production. Previous studies relied on either limited experiment and driving factors, or short-term studying periods, and have yet reached consistent conclusions. Objective This study aims to (1) investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of wheat Yp and Ygp across China, (2) quantify the relative contributions of climate change versus technological advancements (cultivar improvements and water/fertilizer management) to yield increases, and (3) determine region-specific strategies for sustainable intensification. Methods Utilizing a unique dataset spanning 38 years (1981-2018) from 306 agro-meteorological stations combined with the CERES-Wheat model, we investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of wheat yields and assess quantitatively the contributions of climate change and technological advance to yield increases across mainland China. Results Spatially, Northwest China has a larger yield gap (Ygp) (> 40 %) and increasing Yp trend (7.5 - 18.0 kg ha(-1) yr(-1)), emerging as promising hotspot for future yield enhancement. Conversely, Yp declines with a smaller Ygp (< 40 %) and declining Yp (-15.9 - -1.5 kg ha(-1) yr(-1)) in several winter wheat regions of south China. Nationwide, technological advances contributed 59.2 kg ha(-)(1) yr(-)(1) to yield increases, offsetting climate-induced losses (-8.4 kg ha(-)(1) yr(-)(1)), with cultivar improvements accounting for 53 % of technological increases compared to 47 % from water and fertilizer management. Especially, nitrogen application exceeding 179 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) would no longer effectively drive yield increase, with cultivar improvements becoming more advantageous. Conclusions Our results highlight the greater contribution of cultivar improvement relative to input intensification in addressing yield stagnation, particularly under changing climatic conditions. Northwest regions require targeted irrigation modernization, while southern systems mandate nitrogen optimization and phenology-adjusted breeding to counter Yp decline. Implications or significance Our study quantifies the spatiotemporal dynamics of wheat yield potential and disentangles the dominant drivers across China, advocating for region-specific policies prioritizing climate-resilient cultivars and optimized nitrogen application to achieve sustainable intensification. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; WINTER-WHEAT ; GAP ANALYSIS ; GRAIN-YIELD ; PRODUCTIVITY ; IMPACT ; GROWTH ; PROGRESS ; TRAITS |
| WOS研究方向 | Agriculture |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001544018900001 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/215545]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Zhao |
| 作者单位 | 1.Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Natl Safety & Emergency Management, Joint Int Res Lab Catastrophe Simulat & Syst Risk, Zhuhai 519087, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China 5.Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Natl Safety & Emergency Management, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhuang, Huimin,Zhang, Zhao,Xu, Jialu,et al. Overcoming wheat yield stagnation in China depends more on cultivar improvements than water and fertilizer management[J]. FIELD CROPS RESEARCH,2025,333:110089. |
| APA | Zhuang, Huimin,Zhang, Zhao,Xu, Jialu,Han, Jichong,Cheng, Fei,&Tao, Fulu.(2025).Overcoming wheat yield stagnation in China depends more on cultivar improvements than water and fertilizer management.FIELD CROPS RESEARCH,333,110089. |
| MLA | Zhuang, Huimin,et al."Overcoming wheat yield stagnation in China depends more on cultivar improvements than water and fertilizer management".FIELD CROPS RESEARCH 333(2025):110089. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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