China's energy consumption trends and structural transition pathways under synergistic cost and carbon constraints: Based on the perspective of optimal steady economic growth
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wang, Zhixin3; Wang, Xiuli3; Tao, Huan2; Li, Hengkai1; Rao, Yanchun3 |
| 刊名 | ENERGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-10-30 |
| 卷号 | 335页码:138246 |
| 关键词 | Energy consumption Energy structure transition Energy cost Optimal steady economy Experience curve |
| ISSN号 | 0360-5442 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.energy.2025.138246 |
| 产权排序 | 2 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | As a country long reliant on fossil fuels, China faces the dual challenge of maintaining steady economic growth while ensuring environmental protection. To address this issue, this study develops a coupled optimization framework that integrates both economic and energy objectives. The framework consists of two components: first, an optimal steady economic growth model that forecasts s optimal economic growth trajectories under both carbon-constrained and unconstrained scenarios and estimates the corresponding energy demand; second, a multi-objective energy structure optimization model that aims to minimize carbon emissions and energy costs, while incorporating energy substitution elasticity and a learning-curve-based cost function to capture the dynamic relationships among energy technologies, cost, and electricity demand. The two models achieve coordinated modeling of economic development and energy transition through an energy supply-demand balance mechanism, and further project the evolution of energy consumption, structure, and costs under carbon-constrained and unconstrained optimal economic growth scenarios. The results show that under carbon constraints, China's peak energy consumption is expected to occur four years earlier, along with substantial progress in coal phase-out, electrification, and reductions in levelized cost of electricity. The findings underscore that strict implementation of carbon reduction targets and accelerated deployment of clean energy technologies-particularly wind and photovoltaic power-are critical for achieving a coordinated pathway toward economic growth and environmental sustainability in China. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | LEARNING-CURVE ; EMISSIONS ; GENERATION ; REDUCTION ; FORECASTS ; POWER |
| WOS研究方向 | Thermodynamics ; Energy & Fuels |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001565539500004 |
| 出版者 | PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/216031]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Xiuli |
| 作者单位 | 1.Jiangxi Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Civil & Surveying Engn, 1958 Hakka Ave, Ganzhou 341000, Jiangxi, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; 3.Jiangxi Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Econ & Management, 1958 Hakka Ave, Ganzhou 341000, Jiangxi, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Zhixin,Wang, Xiuli,Tao, Huan,et al. China's energy consumption trends and structural transition pathways under synergistic cost and carbon constraints: Based on the perspective of optimal steady economic growth[J]. ENERGY,2025,335:138246. |
| APA | Wang, Zhixin,Wang, Xiuli,Tao, Huan,Li, Hengkai,&Rao, Yanchun.(2025).China's energy consumption trends and structural transition pathways under synergistic cost and carbon constraints: Based on the perspective of optimal steady economic growth.ENERGY,335,138246. |
| MLA | Wang, Zhixin,et al."China's energy consumption trends and structural transition pathways under synergistic cost and carbon constraints: Based on the perspective of optimal steady economic growth".ENERGY 335(2025):138246. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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